NBA games

LAL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
103–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL22312426103
DET33341632115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DET
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 39 37 9 4
LeBron James S 40 20 8 11
Austin Reaves S 39 17 4 4
D'Angelo Russell S 33 11 3 8
Rui Hachimura S 35 8 4 1
Jaxson Hayes 9 5 3 0
Dalton Knecht 9 5 0 0
Gabe Vincent 18 0 0 0
Cam Reddish 14 0 5 0
Max Christie 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 35 26 4 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 32 19 0 1
Cade Cunningham S 36 17 11 11
Tobias Harris S 30 15 7 1
Ronald Holland II 17 12 4 0
Jalen Duren S 24 11 14 1
Isaiah Stewart 25 8 9 2
Malik Beasley 28 7 4 1
Simone Fontecchio 13 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
16%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
6 LeBron James LAL
10%
7 Jalen Duren DET
9%
8 Tobias Harris DET
8%
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
7%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 26.8 10.8 3.2
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.1 6.2 7.7
3 LeBron James LAL 20.4 5.9 6.0
4 Jaden Ivey DET 20.3 4.1 4.2
5 Austin Reaves LAL 16.7 5.1 4.9
6 Tobias Harris DET 13.8 6.5 2.8
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.1 6.5 1.7
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.7 2.8 5.2
9 Jalen Duren DET 10.1 8.6 2.5
10 Malik Beasley DET 10.0 2.3 1.6
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.9 1.7 1.7
12 Dalton Knecht LAL 9.7 2.8 1.6
13 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.9 2.9 1.1
14 Ronald Holland II DET 6.0 2.9 1.2
15 Cole Swider DET 6.0 2.7 1.1
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.4 5.2 1.7
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.1 4.4 1.2
18 Max Christie LAL 5.1 2.4 1.1
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.4 1.2 0.9
20 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.4 2.3 0.8
21 Marcus Sasser DET 3.8 1.3 1.9
22 Cam Reddish LAL 3.2 1.6 0.5
23 Paul Reed DET 3.1 3.0 1.5
24 Bronny James LAL 2.9 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.