NBA games

GS @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
125–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS29253932125
WSH20253631112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home WSH
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 24 24 3 6
Buddy Hield 28 20 5 2
Draymond Green S 29 18 8 5
Jonathan Kuminga 25 15 6 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 23 12 6 3
Moses Moody 15 10 1 1
Gary Payton II S 16 6 3 3
Kyle Anderson 16 6 3 1
Andrew Wiggins S 18 5 4 2
Kevon Looney 18 4 10 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 34 24 1 3
Kyshawn George S 38 20 6 4
Jonas Valanciunas 21 16 12 7
Bub Carrington S 33 16 8 7
Alex Sarr S 27 10 11 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 39 9 4 2
Jared Butler 8 7 0 3
Johnny Davis 8 6 0 0
Corey Kispert 29 4 5 1
Anthony Gill 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Wiggins GS
12%
2 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
3 Stephen Curry GS
10%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
5 Moses Moody GS
9%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
8 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
24%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jordan Poole WSH 19.1 2.6 5.0
2 Buddy Hield GS 16.8 4.0 2.7
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 16.5 6.0 2.3
4 Stephen Curry GS 16.1 3.7 4.8
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 16.0 4.8 2.4
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.2 4.4 1.8
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.8 5.0 4.5
8 Moses Moody GS 12.1 2.8 1.8
9 Corey Kispert WSH 11.7 2.9 1.7
10 Alex Sarr WSH 10.8 6.3 1.8
11 Bub Carrington WSH 9.9 3.9 2.8
12 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 9.7 6.5 2.1
13 Draymond Green GS 8.7 5.1 3.8
14 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.4 5.9 2.3
15 Kyshawn George WSH 8.0 3.8 2.3
16 Lindy Waters III GS 6.4 2.9 1.3
17 Jared Butler WSH 6.1 1.5 3.0
18 Kyle Anderson GS 6.0 3.4 2.1
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.9 6.2 2.0
20 Gary Payton II GS 5.3 2.3 1.4
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.9 1.9 0.7
22 Marvin Bagley III WSH 4.8 3.6 0.8
23 Johnny Davis WSH 4.2 1.9 0.9
24 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.5 2.8 0.5
25 Anthony Gill WSH 3.1 1.1 0.8
26 Pat Spencer GS 2.5 1.1 1.3
27 Gui Santos GS 1.9 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.