NBA games

MIL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
114–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL31293123114
CLE35381627116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CLE
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 37 36 2 7
Bobby Portis S 39 21 18 1
AJ Green 34 21 6 1
Brook Lopez S 36 13 6 0
Pat Connaughton 22 7 4 5
Andre Jackson Jr. 25 7 7 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 21 4 2 1
Taurean Prince S 15 3 1 3
Ryan Rollins 7 2 3 1
Delon Wright 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 35 39 2 8
Evan Mobley S 32 17 5 3
Jarrett Allen S 35 14 15 6
Donovan Mitchell S 31 14 4 4
Sam Merrill 27 12 5 2
Georges Niang 26 9 4 2
Ty Jerome 19 6 0 1
Isaac Okoro S 26 5 3 2
Luke Travers 3 0 1 0
Craig Porter Jr. 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
18%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
18%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
4 Darius Garland CLE
10%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
6 Taurean Prince MIL
9%
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
9%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
9 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
10 Pat Connaughton MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
25%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.4 3.7 4.7
2 Damian Lillard MIL 23.3 4.7 6.5
3 Darius Garland CLE 19.7 2.9 6.2
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.3 8.5 3.3
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.0 11.6 1.8
6 Bobby Portis MIL 13.1 6.4 1.7
7 Brook Lopez MIL 10.5 4.8 1.5
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.2 2.0 1.4
9 Ty Jerome CLE 8.6 2.6 3.0
10 Taurean Prince MIL 8.1 4.2 1.5
11 Sam Merrill CLE 6.7 1.9 1.4
12 Georges Niang CLE 6.4 2.9 1.3
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.7 2.6 1.3
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.3 2.6 1.6
15 Delon Wright MIL 4.1 1.4 1.0
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.0 1.8 1.4
17 JT Thor CLE 3.5 1.9 0.4
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.1 2.4 0.9
19 Luke Travers CLE 3.1 2.8 1.3
20 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.1 2.3 0.7
21 Liam Robbins MIL 3.0 2.0 0.8
22 Stanley Umude MIL 3.0 1.1 0.3
23 AJ Green MIL 2.9 0.9 0.7
24 Ryan Rollins MIL 2.9 1.0 0.6
25 Tyler Smith MIL 2.6 2.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.