NBA games

ORL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
85–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2218212485
DAL30352320108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (DAL) / 9 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DAL
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 25 13 6 6
Jett Howard 22 12 1 0
Jalen Suggs S 29 10 4 2
Moritz Wagner 21 10 6 0
Cole Anthony 14 9 3 3
Tristan da Silva S 31 7 5 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 26 7 3 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 9 6 1 2
Gary Harris 14 4 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 16 3 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 32 32 9 7
Daniel Gafford S 20 18 8 0
Kyrie Irving S 28 17 2 3
Dereck Lively II 20 11 11 1
Klay Thompson S 29 9 5 4
P.J. Washington S 28 7 4 2
Quentin Grimes 17 5 3 0
Naji Marshall 21 4 5 5
Jaden Hardy 9 3 1 0
Brandon Williams 6 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 9-foot two point shot (Franz Wagner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Moritz Wagner ORL
8%
8 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
9 Anthony Black ORL
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
22%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.9 7.8 5.8
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.3 4.4 4.9
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 18.0 5.1 4.6
4 Franz Wagner ORL 15.6 4.5 3.5
5 Klay Thompson DAL 10.9 3.0 1.7
6 P.J. Washington DAL 10.6 6.9 1.6
7 Anthony Black ORL 10.0 3.4 4.6
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.0 8.4 1.5
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.9 6.9 2.1
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.2 3.6 1.2
11 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.8 1.5 2.3
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.7 5.8 1.2
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.1 2.2 1.5
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.2 2.3 0.9
15 Jett Howard ORL 5.9 1.5 0.8
16 Naji Marshall DAL 5.7 3.2 1.9
17 Gary Harris ORL 5.3 1.9 0.8
18 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.0 1.0 1.4
19 Quentin Grimes DAL 5.0 2.7 1.3
20 Cole Anthony ORL 4.8 1.9 2.3
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.6 3.1 0.6
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.3 1.9 0.5
23 Brandon Williams DAL 4.2 0.8 0.8
24 Cory Joseph ORL 4.0 1.4 1.3
25 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.2 4.7 0.3
26 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.8 1.1 0.6
27 Dwight Powell DAL 2.5 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.