NBA games

ATL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
126–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL33253533126
NO30292626111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (NO) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home NO
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 38 29 9 8
Trae Young S 31 23 4 12
Dyson Daniels S 25 16 5 3
Larry Nance Jr. 25 14 6 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 30 11 5 1
Garrison Mathews 20 11 3 1
Clint Capela S 21 8 4 0
David Roddy 26 8 3 3
Keaton Wallace 22 6 2 1
Dominick Barlow 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 30 32 7 2
Jordan Hawkins S 31 19 3 3
Brandon Boston 30 14 5 4
Jamal Cain 18 14 3 0
Jose Alvarado S 29 9 3 7
Daniel Theis 18 7 3 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 25 6 7 2
Yves Missi S 26 4 6 3
Antonio Reeves 4 3 1 0
Javonte Green S 24 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zaccharie Risacher · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Zaccharie Risacher makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
4 Clint Capela ATL
8%
5 Trae Young ATL
8%
6 Jordan Hawkins NO
8%
7 Kobe Bufkin ATL
8%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
9 Yves Missi NO
7%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
54%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 24.8 6.2 4.9
2 Trae Young ATL 24.4 4.2 11.9
3 Zion Williamson NO 23.4 8.1 5.4
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.4 8.9 4.4
5 Jordan Hawkins NO 17.9 4.3 1.9
6 Kobe Bufkin ATL 16.0 3.5 4.1
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.6 4.1 2.4
8 David Roddy ATL 10.4 5.5 2.0
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.2 3.6 1.4
10 Clint Capela ATL 8.7 6.6 1.2
11 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.2 1.6 1.5
12 Jose Alvarado NO 8.2 2.9 4.2
13 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 6.3 3.3 1.6
14 Yves Missi NO 6.3 5.4 1.2
15 Javonte Green NO 6.2 4.1 1.2
16 Daniel Theis NO 5.4 3.5 1.5
17 Jamal Cain NO 5.1 2.5 0.7
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.9 1.5 1.5
19 Vit Krejci ATL 4.8 1.7 2.0
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.7 2.2 0.8
21 Brandon Boston NO 4.2 1.6 1.0
22 Trey Jemison III NO 2.7 2.9 0.7
23 Antonio Reeves NO 2.1 1.0 0.4
24 Karlo Matkovic NO 2.1 1.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.