NBA games

DET @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
106–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET29233123106
BKN2532201592

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home BKN
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 35 19 6 5
Tobias Harris S 35 18 5 6
Malik Beasley 29 18 1 1
Jaden Ivey S 35 15 5 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 23 14 0 2
Jalen Duren S 33 13 17 4
Simone Fontecchio 24 7 8 1
Isaiah Stewart 14 2 5 0
Wendell Moore Jr. 1 0 0 0
Ronald Holland II 10 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 30 26 1 3
Cam Thomas S 31 17 2 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 28 9 3 0
Jalen Wilson 22 8 3 2
Nic Claxton 22 8 1 5
Dennis Schroder S 33 7 5 4
Keon Johnson 13 5 1 0
Noah Clowney 17 4 2 1
Ben Simmons S 24 4 6 6
Ziaire Williams 16 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden Ivey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jaden Ivey makes layup (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
4 Dennis Schroder BKN
11%
5 Jalen Duren DET
11%
6 Tobias Harris DET
10%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
8 Ben Simmons BKN
9%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
26%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 22.9 6.0 7.0
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.3 3.5 3.3
3 Jaden Ivey DET 19.5 4.0 3.8
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 19.4 3.0 6.7
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 14.8 4.3 2.9
6 Tobias Harris DET 12.8 6.8 2.3
7 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.7 4.5 1.7
8 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.8 4.3 1.9
9 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.8 3.2 2.2
10 Jalen Duren DET 9.4 7.5 2.1
11 Malik Beasley DET 9.4 2.5 1.5
12 Nic Claxton BKN 9.3 8.0 1.4
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 8.7 1.9 1.5
14 Ben Simmons BKN 7.5 5.6 4.9
15 Noah Clowney BKN 7.4 3.7 1.5
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.9 2.7 0.9
17 Ronald Holland II DET 6.2 3.0 1.2
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.5 4.8 1.6
19 Keon Johnson BKN 5.4 2.9 1.0
20 Shake Milton BKN 4.8 1.0 1.3
21 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.6 2.4 0.6
22 Marcus Sasser DET 3.9 1.3 1.9
23 Tyrese Martin BKN 3.6 1.6 0.8
24 Paul Reed DET 3.4 3.1 1.3
25 Yongxi Cui BKN 2.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.