NBA games

OKC @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
10592
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC19342824105
LAC2829211492

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAC
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 31 25 3 9
Luguentz Dort S 30 16 4 3
Jalen Williams S 34 15 7 4
Aaron Wiggins S 30 12 5 2
Isaiah Joe 22 12 2 1
Chet Holmgren S 29 10 14 4
Cason Wallace 25 7 4 1
Alex Caruso 16 5 2 0
Ousmane Dieng 8 3 0 0
Ajay Mitchell 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 32 24 2 2
James Harden S 32 12 13 7
Terance Mann S 25 11 6 2
Kris Dunn 20 11 4 4
Ivica Zubac S 28 9 12 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 19 7 4 4
Amir Coffey 20 4 1 0
Kai Jones 10 4 2 1
Nicolas Batum 20 4 2 2
Bones Hyland 4 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Terance Mann makes 24-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
3 James Harden LAC
11%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
6 Norman Powell LAC
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
9 Isaiah Joe OKC
8%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
21%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 23.5 6.0 5.4
2 James Harden LAC 20.8 6.3 9.8
3 Norman Powell LAC 17.8 3.5 2.2
4 Jalen Williams OKC 16.8 4.9 4.1
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.1 7.9 2.3
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.9 10.1 2.2
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.3 3.5 1.4
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.0 3.6 1.4
9 Jordan Miller LAC 9.0 2.7 1.5
10 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.8 3.4 2.8
11 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.6 3.8 1.7
12 Ousmane Dieng OKC 8.5 4.7 1.9
13 Cason Wallace OKC 8.1 3.8 1.9
14 Bones Hyland LAC 7.8 3.5 1.5
15 Amir Coffey LAC 7.7 2.2 1.0
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.5 2.5 1.4
17 Ajay Mitchell OKC 7.5 2.4 1.8
18 Kris Dunn LAC 6.3 3.6 1.5
19 Terance Mann LAC 6.0 3.0 1.3
20 Dillon Jones OKC 5.9 3.6 1.8
21 Kai Jones LAC 5.6 4.3 0.9
22 Kobe Brown LAC 5.2 4.8 1.7
23 Alex Caruso OKC 4.6 2.8 1.8
24 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 3.1 1.7
25 Malevy Leons OKC 3.8 3.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.