NBA games

POR @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
97–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR1829183297
PHX22214416103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home PHX
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 39 20 7 2
Anfernee Simons S 41 20 8 6
Deni Avdija S 32 13 6 2
Dalano Banton 12 12 1 2
Deandre Ayton S 30 10 13 2
Scoot Henderson 17 7 2 1
Toumani Camara S 34 7 10 1
Kris Murray 13 3 4 1
Donovan Clingan 14 3 4 0
Rayan Rupert 7 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 28 9 9
Kevin Durant S 38 21 9 2
Grayson Allen 19 18 2 0
Bradley Beal S 34 15 7 4
Tyus Jones S 29 15 5 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 24 3 15 0
Royce O'Neale 23 3 7 3
Ryan Dunn 14 0 2 2
Mason Plumlee 17 0 6 2
Monte Morris 8 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
4 Devin Booker PHX
10%
5 Deni Avdija POR
8%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
7 Deandre Ayton POR
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Jerami Grant POR
8%
10 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
55%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 23.6 6.1 3.9
2 Devin Booker PHX 23.5 3.6 4.6
3 Anfernee Simons POR 20.1 2.9 5.3
4 Jerami Grant POR 17.5 4.1 2.3
5 Bradley Beal PHX 16.9 3.5 3.6
6 Scoot Henderson POR 16.2 4.1 5.4
7 Deandre Ayton POR 13.7 10.5 1.7
8 Toumani Camara POR 12.0 4.5 2.7
9 Deni Avdija POR 11.8 5.7 3.6
10 Tyus Jones PHX 11.0 2.9 5.9
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.4 8.1 1.7
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.6 5.7 2.3
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 8.3 3.2 1.2
14 Rayan Rupert POR 7.9 2.9 1.4
15 Kris Murray POR 7.0 3.2 1.5
16 Dalano Banton POR 6.4 2.2 2.5
17 Monte Morris PHX 6.3 2.0 2.4
18 Donovan Clingan POR 6.0 7.8 0.8
19 Grayson Allen PHX 6.0 2.6 1.8
20 Jabari Walker POR 5.7 3.5 0.9
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.3 4.8 1.3
22 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.7 3.3 1.3
23 Josh Okogie PHX 4.4 1.8 1.1
24 Duop Reath POR 4.2 1.8 0.7
25 Bol Bol PHX 3.8 3.4 0.8
26 Damion Lee PHX 2.9 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.