NBA games

UTAH @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
103–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH26301928103
DEN37283430129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DEN
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Walker Kessler S 29 18 14 0
Johnny Juzang 27 17 2 1
Keyonte George S 32 16 2 8
John Collins 22 15 5 5
Collin Sexton S 26 10 1 4
Brice Sensabaugh 16 10 0 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 15 6 1 2
Drew Eubanks 20 5 6 1
Cody Williams S 20 4 1 0
Kyle Filipowski S 18 2 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 30 27 16 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 20 5 2
Julian Strawther 19 19 2 0
Christian Braun S 33 17 2 3
Aaron Gordon S 26 12 6 5
Peyton Watson 20 8 4 1
Hunter Tyson 25 7 4 4
DeAndre Jordan 14 6 9 1
Zeke Nnaji 4 6 0 1
Russell Westbrook S 31 5 3 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Walker Kessler · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Walker Kessler makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
14%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
13%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
13%
5 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
6 Christian Braun DEN
12%
7 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
10%
8 Cody Williams UTAH
10%
9 Collin Sexton UTAH
0%
10 John Collins UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
38%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.3 11.8 8.7
2 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.5 6.5 3.8
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.0 6.2 2.2
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 15.2 3.6 3.4
5 Keyonte George UTAH 15.2 3.0 5.3
6 Julian Strawther DEN 13.0 3.0 2.3
7 Christian Braun DEN 12.8 5.5 2.0
8 John Collins UTAH 12.7 6.6 2.2
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 10.5 3.4 5.1
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.1 10.2 1.6
11 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 7.7 2.8 1.5
12 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.9 1.7 1.1
13 Cody Williams UTAH 6.8 2.9 1.6
14 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 5.9 3.6 1.6
15 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.2 3.6 0.8
16 Dario Saric DEN 5.0 3.1 1.1
17 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.7 3.4 1.0
18 Peyton Watson DEN 4.6 2.5 0.8
19 Patty Mills UTAH 4.4 1.5 0.9
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.4 2.1 0.5
21 Trey Alexander DEN 3.8 1.8 1.6
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.3 0.7 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.