NBA games

MIA @ WSH

NBA Arena CDMX ·Final
118–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA31253329118
WSH2127222898

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (WSH) / 9 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home WSH
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 31 32 14 2
Jimmy Butler III S 31 18 8 4
Tyler Herro S 20 15 6 1
Alec Burks 29 15 3 3
Terry Rozier S 31 12 3 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 25 8 10 1
Pelle Larsson 14 7 1 2
Thomas Bryant 14 4 9 0
Nikola Jovic S 23 3 6 1
Kel'el Ware 2 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 33 22 8 2
Jordan Poole S 31 21 0 3
Alex Sarr S 27 17 6 3
Johnny Davis 18 9 7 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 3 6 0 0
Kyshawn George S 27 6 8 1
Jared Butler 7 5 0 2
Bub Carrington S 37 4 4 8
Jonas Valanciunas 16 4 7 1
Corey Kispert 31 4 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
15%
2 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
12%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
7 Terry Rozier MIA
9%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
10 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
21%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 21.2 4.3 5.0
2 Jordan Poole WSH 17.8 2.8 5.0
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 16.8 4.6 4.1
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.4 5.9 2.4
5 Terry Rozier MIA 15.0 4.7 4.2
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 12.9 6.4 2.4
7 Corey Kispert WSH 12.5 2.9 1.9
8 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.4 6.6 2.2
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.9 5.6 2.9
10 Alex Sarr WSH 9.8 6.2 1.7
11 Bub Carrington WSH 9.8 3.9 2.4
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.0 3.1 2.1
13 Kyshawn George WSH 7.7 3.5 2.4
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.5 3.3 0.9
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 6.1 1.7 1.5
16 Jared Butler WSH 5.8 1.5 3.1
17 Alec Burks MIA 5.1 1.7 1.0
18 Marvin Bagley III WSH 5.0 3.9 1.0
19 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.9 2.3 0.8
20 Kel'el Ware MIA 4.9 3.2 0.5
21 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.4 1.1 1.2
22 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.4 2.0 0.7
23 Dru Smith MIA 3.7 2.2 1.8
24 Kevin Love MIA 3.3 0.7 0.4
25 Johnny Davis WSH 3.2 1.1 0.9
26 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.9 2.6 0.3
27 Anthony Gill WSH 2.2 0.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.