NBA games

MIN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
103–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN32252521103
SA32303318113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SA
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 30 21 5 2
Anthony Edwards S 36 21 5 2
Donte DiVincenzo 28 14 2 2
Naz Reid 26 11 4 2
Rudy Gobert S 23 10 3 1
Jaden McDaniels S 30 7 3 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 6 3 6
Mike Conley S 21 5 3 3
Josh Minott 10 4 2 0
PJ Dozier 3 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 29 25 8 0
Jeremy Sochan S 33 19 10 4
Victor Wembanyama S 31 17 6 3
Chris Paul S 33 15 4 13
Harrison Barnes S 38 14 3 3
Zach Collins 13 7 1 5
Julian Champagnie S 29 7 6 3
Malaki Branham 14 6 2 1
Stephon Castle 15 3 3 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
36%
2 Jeremy Sochan SA
7%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
6%
4 Julius Randle MIN
5%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
5%
6 Luka Garza MIN
5%
7 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
4%
8 Rob Dillingham MIN
4%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
4%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
4%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
77%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
6%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 24.6 7.0 5.4
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.7 4.9 3.8
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 18.6 10.6 3.5
4 Jeremy Sochan SA 17.5 8.3 3.1
5 Luka Garza MIN 14.1 5.1 1.0
6 Naz Reid MIN 12.8 5.7 2.1
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.6 5.2 1.5
8 Chris Paul SA 11.5 3.4 6.2
9 Josh Minott MIN 11.0 4.5 1.5
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.8 10.0 1.6
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.6 3.4 3.8
12 Harrison Barnes SA 10.4 3.4 1.5
13 Julian Champagnie SA 10.3 4.6 1.4
14 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.9 3.4 2.0
15 Malaki Branham SA 9.9 2.4 1.4
16 Stephon Castle SA 9.1 2.7 3.5
17 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.1 2.7 2.2
18 Rob Dillingham MIN 7.6 2.0 4.0
19 Mike Conley MIN 7.0 2.5 3.1
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 6.9 2.3 1.2
21 Zach Collins SA 6.7 3.5 1.6
22 Sidy Cissoko SA 5.7 2.8 1.2
23 Blake Wesley SA 5.1 2.3 2.9
24 Daishen Nix MIN 4.7 1.1 0.9
25 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.0 1.8 1.6
26 Charles Bassey SA 3.4 3.0 0.4
27 Joe Ingles MIN 3.0 1.5 1.7
28 PJ Dozier MIN 2.4 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.