NBA games

CLE @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE30312627114
MIL38242229113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (MIL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIL
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 30 3 4
Sam Merrill 22 17 1 1
Jarrett Allen S 32 15 12 1
Evan Mobley S 32 14 7 5
Isaac Okoro 28 13 8 1
Darius Garland S 34 11 3 10
Dean Wade S 23 8 4 2
Ty Jerome 9 3 2 3
Georges Niang 21 3 4 2
Craig Porter Jr. 5 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 39 41 4 9
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 34 16 9
Taurean Prince S 32 16 6 0
Bobby Portis 20 10 8 0
Brook Lopez S 35 6 6 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 15 3 1 1
Gary Trent Jr. S 34 3 1 1
Delon Wright 17 0 1 0
Pat Connaughton 10 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
27%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
6 Darius Garland CLE
7%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
6%
9 Dean Wade CLE
5%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
38%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
21%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.0 11.5 5.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.1 3.8 4.7
3 Damian Lillard MIL 22.6 4.8 6.3
4 Darius Garland CLE 20.0 2.9 5.7
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.5 9.1 3.1
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.9 11.3 1.7
7 Bobby Portis MIL 13.3 6.3 1.8
8 Brook Lopez MIL 10.5 4.6 1.6
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.8 2.1 1.4
10 Ty Jerome CLE 9.0 2.7 3.0
11 Dean Wade CLE 7.8 4.3 1.8
12 Taurean Prince MIL 7.4 4.2 1.7
13 Georges Niang CLE 6.5 3.0 1.1
14 Sam Merrill CLE 6.0 1.9 1.4
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.0 2.6 1.6
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.3 2.1 1.2
17 Delon Wright MIL 4.2 1.5 1.2
18 Liam Robbins MIL 3.8 2.5 1.0
19 AJ Green MIL 3.8 1.3 1.0
20 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.8 1.5 0.8
21 Luke Travers CLE 3.7 3.2 1.3
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.7 2.7 0.7
23 JT Thor CLE 3.6 1.9 0.4
24 Tyler Smith MIL 3.5 2.8 0.6
25 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.3 1.6 0.7
26 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.1 1.2 1.0
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.9 2.5 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.