NBA games

GS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
127–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
GS383325238127
HOU202337392121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (HOU) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home HOU
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield 32 27 7 2
Jonathan Kuminga 26 23 6 1
Andrew Wiggins S 31 15 3 2
Draymond Green S 35 14 11 3
Brandin Podziemski S 38 12 5 6
Moses Moody S 17 9 0 2
Kyle Anderson 24 9 3 2
Kevon Looney 21 7 7 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 13 6 3 3
Gary Payton II 11 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tari Eason 35 27 9 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 21 7 0
Amen Thompson 34 18 11 4
Alperen Sengun S 21 14 10 4
Fred VanVleet S 40 11 3 5
Jalen Green S 34 7 1 3
Dillon Brooks S 27 7 5 2
Aaron Holiday 16 6 0 4
Cam Whitmore 5 4 2 1
Reed Sheppard 7 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Moses Moody GS
10%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
10 Lindy Waters III GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
35%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 21.3 5.0 2.7
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 18.0 10.3 3.5
3 Buddy Hield GS 16.0 3.5 2.5
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.2 4.6 2.2
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.4 4.0 1.7
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.9 4.1 1.5
7 Moses Moody GS 11.8 3.0 1.8
8 Fred VanVleet HOU 11.6 3.0 5.4
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.3 4.8 4.0
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.3 7.2 1.7
11 Amen Thompson HOU 9.9 4.7 1.7
12 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.4 6.0 2.1
13 Tari Eason HOU 7.8 3.9 1.4
14 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.5 2.2 1.2
15 Draymond Green GS 7.2 4.1 3.5
16 Lindy Waters III GS 6.5 2.9 1.1
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.5 5.5 1.8
18 Kyle Anderson GS 5.4 3.3 2.2
19 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.0 2.2 1.7
20 Gary Payton II GS 4.8 2.1 1.5
21 Jock Landale HOU 4.0 2.4 0.5
22 Pat Spencer GS 3.1 1.5 1.4
23 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.0 0.7 0.4
24 Gui Santos GS 2.5 1.3 0.6
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.1 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.