NBA games

SAC @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
128–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
SAC293423348128
TOR3729302411131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home TOR
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 43 33 3 4
De'Aaron Fox S 43 24 6 1
Malik Monk 38 21 4 4
Domantas Sabonis S 43 17 20 10
Keegan Murray S 39 16 10 2
Keon Ellis 27 8 1 0
Trey Lyles 13 5 4 0
Doug McDermott S 15 4 1 0
Jordan McLaughlin 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 40 31 9 6
Chris Boucher 25 24 5 1
Ochai Agbaji S 36 22 5 2
Gradey Dick S 38 22 5 2
Jakob Poeltl S 34 13 9 2
Jamison Battle 15 9 1 3
Jonathan Mogbo 16 6 6 1
Davion Mitchell S 37 4 4 7
Jamal Shead 14 0 0 6
Ja'Kobe Walter 10 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
19%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
5 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
6 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
9 Davion Mitchell TOR
6%
10 Doug McDermott SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
13%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 26.4 4.5 6.5
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 23.2 5.4 5.7
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.6 11.0 6.2
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.7 4.2 4.0
5 Gradey Dick TOR 17.7 3.6 1.9
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 15.5 11.0 3.3
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.7 5.6 2.0
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 11.7 4.8 2.0
9 Malik Monk SAC 11.4 3.2 2.6
10 Davion Mitchell TOR 8.7 2.8 5.4
11 Chris Boucher TOR 8.4 3.8 0.9
12 Jamal Shead TOR 7.9 1.5 3.7
13 Keon Ellis SAC 6.9 2.7 1.9
14 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.9 4.5 1.7
15 Jamison Battle TOR 5.2 2.2 0.8
16 Trey Lyles SAC 5.0 3.5 0.9
17 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 4.5 1.4 2.3
18 Doug McDermott SAC 4.3 1.2 0.6
19 Bruno Fernando TOR 4.3 4.3 0.8
20 Alex Len SAC 3.9 3.8 1.3
21 D.J. Carton TOR 3.4 1.6 1.2
22 Isaac Jones SAC 2.9 1.7 0.8
23 Colby Jones SAC 2.6 1.0 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.