NBA games

MEM @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
124–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM24353332124
PHI28242332107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home PHI
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 27 6 0
Jay Huff 14 20 5 1
Ja Morant S 31 18 6 12
Jaylen Wells S 36 15 5 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 29 12 4 13
Santi Aldama S 35 10 13 4
Zach Edey S 22 10 10 1
Jake LaRavia 26 8 2 2
Brandon Clarke 13 4 1 0
Yuki Kawamura 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 37 23 2 6
Jared McCain 17 19 4 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 27 14 4 0
Eric Gordon 22 10 1 2
Kyle Lowry S 21 10 3 1
Caleb Martin S 28 9 3 3
Guerschon Yabusele 19 9 3 0
Andre Drummond S 29 4 9 2
KJ Martin 20 4 3 1
Reggie Jackson 9 3 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · Layup (2 pts) · 10:27 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes driving layup (Zach Edey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
15%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
5 Zach Edey MEM
10%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
9%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
9 Caleb Martin PHI
7%
10 Kyle Lowry PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
23%
Layup
53%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 22.2 3.0 4.4
2 Ja Morant MEM 21.5 6.0 8.2
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.3 5.4 1.8
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.0 4.2 1.7
5 Santi Aldama MEM 13.9 6.1 3.3
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.7 3.7 2.3
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 11.0 3.3 5.1
8 Caleb Martin PHI 10.6 4.8 1.9
9 Andre Drummond PHI 10.4 10.2 1.3
10 Zach Edey MEM 9.9 6.3 1.1
11 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.2 6.2 3.1
12 Jared McCain PHI 9.2 3.2 1.6
13 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 8.2 4.2 2.0
14 Jay Huff MEM 8.1 3.5 1.1
15 KJ Martin PHI 6.9 3.4 1.3
16 Kyle Lowry PHI 6.3 2.3 2.9
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.2 2.3 1.0
18 John Konchar MEM 6.1 4.6 1.4
19 Brandon Clarke MEM 5.9 2.7 1.3
20 Eric Gordon PHI 5.8 1.4 0.9
21 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.3 1.1 1.9
22 Yuki Kawamura MEM 3.5 1.1 2.3
23 Colin Castleton MEM 3.4 2.9 1.4
24 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.3 0.8 1.2
25 Adem Bona PHI 2.6 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.