NBA games

BOS @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
113–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS38301728113
CHA24262429103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CHA
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 34 29 7 3
Payton Pritchard 29 22 3 2
Luke Kornet S 30 19 4 3
Derrick White S 34 18 8 2
Jrue Holiday S 35 13 5 6
Sam Hauser 20 8 7 1
Neemias Queta 15 4 3 1
Al Horford S 27 0 6 5
Jordan Walsh 13 0 0 0
Xavier Tillman 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 37 36 4 6
Brandon Miller S 31 16 4 6
Josh Green S 21 12 0 0
Cody Martin 19 11 4 1
Tre Mann 22 10 1 3
Miles Bridges S 31 6 8 5
Grant Williams S 34 5 3 2
Nick Smith Jr. 10 4 1 0
Taj Gibson 4 2 4 0
Moussa Diabate 14 1 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
23%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
14%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Luke Kornet BOS
10%
5 Derrick White BOS
9%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
7 Al Horford BOS
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Josh Green CHA
8%
10 Tre Mann CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
57%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.9 7.0 5.5
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 25.3 5.0 6.6
3 Tre Mann CHA 19.8 4.2 3.9
4 Derrick White BOS 17.1 3.8 3.4
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.0 3.2 3.9
6 Miles Bridges CHA 13.4 5.9 2.1
7 Brandon Miller CHA 13.0 3.1 1.8
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.3 3.2 2.1
9 Tidjane Salaun CHA 9.3 5.3 1.6
10 Cody Martin CHA 9.0 4.4 1.3
11 Al Horford BOS 8.4 3.7 1.6
12 Grant Williams CHA 8.2 3.3 2.3
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.0 4.5 1.4
14 Luke Kornet BOS 5.9 4.9 1.4
15 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.5 2.6 1.0
16 Josh Green CHA 5.4 2.0 1.2
17 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.4 4.6 0.9
18 Neemias Queta BOS 5.3 4.9 1.0
19 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.2 3.6 1.0
20 JD Davison BOS 5.0 1.6 1.7
21 KJ Simpson CHA 3.9 1.7 1.6
22 Vasilije Micic CHA 3.7 2.0 1.8
23 Jaden Springer BOS 3.4 1.4 0.9
24 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.7 1.2 0.4
25 Taj Gibson CHA 2.3 1.9 0.3
26 Jared Rhoden CHA 2.1 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.