NBA games

OKC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
137–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC37313831137
POR24441729114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (POR) / 9 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home POR
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 30 7 6
Jalen Williams S 26 22 5 4
Aaron Wiggins 23 13 8 2
Cason Wallace 23 13 1 3
Isaiah Joe S 27 12 5 2
Ousmane Dieng 19 11 3 2
Luguentz Dort S 25 8 5 2
Ajay Mitchell 17 8 2 2
Dillon Jones 12 7 4 2
Alex Caruso 17 6 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 28 17 3 2
Rayan Rupert 23 14 2 0
Deandre Ayton S 28 14 5 2
Toumani Camara S 24 13 3 2
Dalano Banton 9 11 0 3
Deni Avdija S 23 11 3 4
Kris Murray 22 9 3 0
Anfernee Simons S 28 9 4 6
Scoot Henderson 25 8 3 5
Duop Reath 5 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Deni Avdija POR
10%
6 Jerami Grant POR
9%
7 Deandre Ayton POR
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
8%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
31%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 22.3 5.9 5.3
2 Anfernee Simons POR 20.7 2.8 5.0
3 Scoot Henderson POR 17.9 4.5 5.4
4 Jalen Williams OKC 17.4 4.9 3.9
5 Jerami Grant POR 17.2 4.4 2.4
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.7 8.4 2.1
7 Deandre Ayton POR 13.2 10.9 1.6
8 Toumani Camara POR 12.2 4.7 2.8
9 Deni Avdija POR 11.6 6.1 3.3
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.7 3.5 1.8
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.6 3.2 1.3
12 Ousmane Dieng OKC 8.4 4.6 2.2
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.4 2.1 1.3
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.4 3.9 1.6
15 Ajay Mitchell OKC 7.4 2.4 1.7
16 Kris Murray POR 7.1 3.3 1.5
17 Rayan Rupert POR 7.1 2.8 1.5
18 Donovan Clingan POR 6.4 8.3 0.8
19 Dillon Jones OKC 5.9 3.5 1.8
20 Jabari Walker POR 5.7 3.7 0.7
21 Dalano Banton POR 5.1 1.9 2.1
22 Alex Caruso OKC 4.6 2.6 1.8
23 Malevy Leons OKC 3.4 2.7 0.5
24 Duop Reath POR 3.1 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.