NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
116–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29322431116
MIN33312728119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (MIN) / 9 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 38 31 11 2
Nikola Jokic S 40 26 9 13
Michael Porter Jr. S 39 26 6 4
Christian Braun S 36 14 7 2
Jamal Murray S 22 6 2 3
Russell Westbrook 25 5 6 5
Julian Strawther 16 4 1 1
Peyton Watson 14 2 1 0
Hunter Tyson 6 2 1 0
Dario Saric 5 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 29 4 4
Julius Randle S 37 23 6 7
Rudy Gobert S 36 17 14 3
Naz Reid 23 16 3 2
Jaden McDaniels S 26 10 0 1
Mike Conley S 26 9 0 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 8 2 5
Donte DiVincenzo 25 7 8 6
Joe Ingles 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Rudy Gobert assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
4 Julius Randle MIN
7%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
7%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
7%
7 Luka Garza MIN
7%
8 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
7%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Rob Dillingham MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
32%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.3 11.1 7.5
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.2 5.1 4.2
3 Julius Randle MIN 24.6 7.3 5.8
4 Jamal Murray DEN 16.3 3.6 3.8
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.0 6.1 1.8
6 Luka Garza MIN 14.9 5.2 1.1
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.1 5.9 3.7
8 Julian Strawther DEN 13.3 3.0 2.2
9 Naz Reid MIN 13.1 5.9 2.3
10 Christian Braun DEN 12.1 5.3 1.8
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.9 3.0 3.8
12 Josh Minott MIN 11.7 4.6 1.6
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.0 10.3 1.5
14 Russell Westbrook DEN 9.9 2.8 4.4
15 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.7 3.4 2.2
16 Rob Dillingham MIN 8.1 2.0 4.4
17 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.0 2.5 2.1
18 Mike Conley MIN 6.7 2.5 3.0
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.6 2.6 0.9
20 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.6 1.9 1.7
21 Peyton Watson DEN 4.3 2.5 0.7
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.2 2.1 0.4
23 Trey Alexander DEN 3.8 1.8 1.4
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.3 2.9 0.7
25 PJ Dozier MIN 2.9 0.6 0.8
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.7 1.2 2.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.