NBA games

IND @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
118–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND35272729118
NO35273330125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (NO) / 9 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NO
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ben Sheppard 33 20 3 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 32 19 6 3
Pascal Siakam S 32 16 5 6
Aaron Nesmith S 10 12 1 1
Myles Turner S 30 12 4 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 33 11 2 11
T.J. McConnell 22 10 3 9
Obi Toppin 19 7 5 0
Isaiah Jackson 16 6 8 1
Jarace Walker 14 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 37 34 6 10
Brandon Ingram S 35 26 6 7
Jordan Hawkins S 37 23 4 1
Brandon Boston 23 14 2 2
Jose Alvarado S 32 12 6 7
Javonte Green 19 7 4 0
Yves Missi S 26 4 10 0
Daniel Theis 13 3 5 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 9 2 3 0
Jamal Cain 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Myles Turner IND
11%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
5 Jordan Hawkins NO
9%
6 Isaiah Jackson IND
8%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
9 Daniel Theis NO
7%
10 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
33%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 23.8 6.3 4.4
2 Zion Williamson NO 21.0 8.2 4.5
3 Pascal Siakam IND 17.9 5.9 4.7
4 Jordan Hawkins NO 16.3 4.3 1.7
5 Myles Turner IND 15.2 6.2 2.1
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.7 3.6 2.3
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND 14.0 4.2 5.7
8 Obi Toppin IND 9.3 3.2 1.8
9 T.J. McConnell IND 8.1 2.4 3.4
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 8.0 2.3 3.7
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.2 3.4 1.2
12 Jose Alvarado NO 7.2 2.7 3.6
13 Ben Sheppard IND 6.4 2.4 1.2
14 Yves Missi NO 6.3 4.9 1.3
15 Jarace Walker IND 5.9 2.5 1.4
16 Javonte Green NO 5.9 4.1 1.2
17 Daniel Theis NO 5.6 3.6 1.4
18 Jamal Cain NO 5.5 2.9 0.7
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.4 5.0 0.8
20 Enrique Freeman IND 4.8 3.9 0.6
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.8 2.2 0.7
22 Quenton Jackson IND 4.0 1.6 1.3
23 Brandon Boston NO 3.1 1.4 0.8
24 Trey Jemison III NO 3.0 3.2 0.7
25 Antonio Reeves NO 2.2 1.0 0.3
26 Karlo Matkovic NO 2.1 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.