NBA games

LAL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
131–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL43332332131
TOR19323737125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home TOR
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 36 38 11 2
LeBron James S 36 27 6 10
Austin Reaves S 34 20 1 6
D'Angelo Russell S 32 19 3 6
Rui Hachimura S 33 9 5 1
Max Christie 13 7 5 1
Dalton Knecht 19 5 3 1
Jaxson Hayes 15 4 6 0
Gabe Vincent 21 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 32 33 5 12
Gradey Dick S 32 31 7 3
Jakob Poeltl S 35 19 12 6
Davion Mitchell S 31 10 3 5
Chris Boucher 14 9 2 1
Ochai Agbaji S 34 8 2 3
Jonathan Mogbo 21 6 6 3
Ja'Kobe Walter 22 5 6 1
Jamal Shead 15 4 1 1
D.J. Carton 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"LeBron James makes 23-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
12%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
3 Gradey Dick TOR
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
7 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
9%
8 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
10 Davion Mitchell TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
42%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 26.3 10.7 3.4
2 RJ Barrett TOR 25.2 4.8 6.1
3 LeBron James LAL 21.4 6.0 6.1
4 Austin Reaves LAL 18.6 5.4 5.0
5 Gradey Dick TOR 17.4 3.4 2.2
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 15.2 10.9 3.2
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.1 6.6 1.8
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 12.4 4.5 2.1
9 Dalton Knecht LAL 12.1 2.9 1.9
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.7 2.6 5.0
11 Chris Boucher TOR 8.9 3.9 1.0
12 Davion Mitchell TOR 8.6 2.5 5.9
13 Jamal Shead TOR 8.6 1.5 4.5
14 Max Christie LAL 6.3 2.6 1.3
15 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.9 4.4 2.1
16 Jamison Battle TOR 5.8 2.3 1.0
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.7 4.7 1.6
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.5 1.2 1.0
19 Bruno Fernando TOR 5.2 4.5 1.0
20 Cam Reddish LAL 4.3 1.9 0.8
21 Bronny James LAL 4.1 1.8 0.7
22 D.J. Carton TOR 3.2 1.5 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.