NBA games

CHI @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
112–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI30303022112
BKN37312428120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (BKN) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home BKN
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 34 28 11 3
Zach LaVine S 34 21 1 2
Coby White S 34 21 4 4
Josh Giddey S 33 11 6 8
Ayo Dosunmu 27 10 7 3
Patrick Williams S 28 6 6 1
Dalen Terry 14 5 2 1
Jalen Smith 14 5 5 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 7 3 0 1
Julian Phillips 14 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 32 32 0 4
Cameron Johnson S 32 14 6 5
Keon Johnson 9 12 3 1
Nic Claxton 24 12 9 2
Ziaire Williams 20 10 3 0
Dennis Schroder S 33 9 7 7
Dorian Finney-Smith S 28 9 5 0
Ben Simmons S 26 8 8 11
Jalen Wilson 22 7 1 3
Noah Clowney 15 7 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ben Simmons · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Ben Simmons makes 1-foot two point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
13%
3 Coby White CHI
10%
4 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
5 Ben Simmons BKN
10%
6 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
10%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
8 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
10 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
35%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 23.1 4.1 3.3
2 Zach LaVine CHI 21.8 5.0 3.5
3 Coby White CHI 21.2 4.3 5.0
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 20.5 3.0 7.2
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.3 10.0 3.7
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 15.3 4.5 3.0
7 Josh Giddey CHI 15.1 6.9 5.7
8 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.4 5.2 2.1
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.8 4.6 2.1
10 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.4 3.4 2.3
11 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 10.3 3.8 3.0
12 Jalen Smith CHI 9.7 6.4 1.2
13 Nic Claxton BKN 9.3 8.7 1.4
14 Patrick Williams CHI 8.5 4.7 2.0
15 Noah Clowney BKN 8.0 4.0 1.6
16 Ben Simmons BKN 7.9 5.6 4.7
17 Julian Phillips CHI 6.7 2.5 0.9
18 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 6.6 2.3 1.1
19 Shake Milton BKN 5.8 1.5 1.5
20 Keon Johnson BKN 5.4 3.0 1.2
21 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.9 2.0 1.0
22 Torrey Craig CHI 4.7 2.0 0.6
23 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.6 2.1 0.9
24 Adama Sanogo CHI 4.5 4.0 0.7
25 Dalen Terry CHI 4.1 2.2 1.6
26 Chris Duarte CHI 3.3 1.3 0.6
27 Jevon Carter CHI 3.1 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.