NBA games

SAC @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
123–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC33363321123
ATL26333125115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (ATL) / 9 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home ATL
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 37 31 7 3
DeMar DeRozan S 39 27 8 2
Domantas Sabonis S 33 15 14 6
Keegan Murray S 39 14 10 3
Keon Ellis 19 12 1 2
Kevin Huerter S 24 10 2 4
Malik Monk 29 9 4 6
Trey Lyles 19 5 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 42 25 5 12
Garrison Mathews 30 23 1 2
Clint Capela S 29 15 10 1
Keaton Wallace 29 14 3 3
Jalen Johnson S 36 14 5 9
Onyeka Okongwu 19 11 4 1
David Roddy 27 8 8 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 20 3 1 0
Larry Nance Jr. S 8 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zaccharie Risacher · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Zaccharie Risacher makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
2 Trae Young ATL
10%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Kobe Bufkin ATL
8%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
27%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 23.8 4.3 11.0
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.7 11.2 6.4
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 21.8 5.3 5.9
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 20.6 4.1 4.1
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 20.0 10.1 3.8
6 Kobe Bufkin ATL 16.2 3.5 4.0
7 Keegan Murray SAC 14.0 5.3 2.0
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 12.2 3.7 1.6
9 Malik Monk SAC 11.7 3.3 2.2
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.7 5.4 1.5
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.6 4.1 1.5
12 David Roddy ATL 10.3 5.5 1.9
13 Clint Capela ATL 8.6 6.5 1.3
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.6 1.5 1.4
15 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 7.3 3.5 1.7
16 Keon Ellis SAC 6.6 2.9 1.9
17 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 5.0 1.7 2.4
18 Trey Lyles SAC 4.8 3.3 0.9
19 Doug McDermott SAC 4.8 1.5 0.7
20 Vit Krejci ATL 4.8 1.8 2.0
21 Alex Len SAC 4.4 4.1 1.4
22 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.8 1.3 1.3
23 Isaac Jones SAC 3.4 2.1 0.9
24 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.2 2.3 0.6
25 Colby Jones SAC 3.1 1.3 1.2
26 Skal Labissiere SAC 1.8 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.