NBA games

NY @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
128–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY39303524128
DET1333282498

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 9 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DET
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 31 36 1 5
OG Anunoby S 33 21 4 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 27 21 11 7
Mikal Bridges S 35 15 7 3
Josh Hart S 37 13 9 4
Miles McBride 28 10 3 2
Cameron Payne 12 4 1 3
Tyler Kolek 5 4 1 0
Jacob Toppin 5 2 1 1
Pacome Dadiet 5 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 32 22 6 6
Tobias Harris S 26 13 8 3
Simone Fontecchio 20 12 4 0
Jaden Ivey S 19 10 5 2
Ronald Holland II 22 9 2 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 25 8 1 3
Malik Beasley 25 8 0 1
Jalen Duren S 18 5 7 2
Paul Reed 7 5 2 1
Marcus Sasser 20 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 12-foot two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Tobias Harris DET
10%
8 OG Anunoby NY
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
20%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.1 3.0 5.4
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.1 5.3 6.9
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.4 10.2 2.2
4 Jaden Ivey DET 18.6 3.9 3.7
5 Miles McBride NY 15.8 2.4 3.1
6 Mikal Bridges NY 15.0 3.6 2.7
7 Tobias Harris DET 12.5 6.5 2.2
8 OG Anunoby NY 11.8 4.1 1.7
9 Cameron Payne NY 9.7 2.4 3.6
10 Josh Hart NY 9.3 6.5 3.1
11 Jalen Duren DET 9.3 7.6 2.2
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 8.2 1.9 1.4
13 Malik Beasley DET 8.2 2.5 1.6
14 Tyler Kolek NY 7.4 1.7 2.4
15 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.4 2.7 1.0
16 Ronald Holland II DET 6.1 3.3 1.5
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.9 4.6 1.5
18 Pacome Dadiet NY 5.1 1.9 0.5
19 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.6 2.0 0.4
20 Daniss Jenkins DET 3.6 1.5 1.1
21 Jericho Sims NY 3.1 4.5 0.6
22 Marcus Sasser DET 2.8 0.7 1.8
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.4 2.7 0.4
24 Paul Reed DET 2.2 2.7 1.2
25 Jacob Toppin NY 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.