NBA games

ORL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
109–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL16283431109
CLE34293225120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (CLE) / 8 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CLE
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 37 28 8 7
Franz Wagner S 30 17 8 6
Tristan da Silva 20 17 5 2
Moritz Wagner S 28 14 5 0
Jett Howard 17 9 3 0
Anthony Black S 28 7 2 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 28 7 1 1
Jonathan Isaac 17 5 4 0
Cory Joseph 4 3 1 2
Cole Anthony 8 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 29 25 3 4
Donovan Mitchell S 22 22 3 1
Evan Mobley S 30 14 12 3
Caris LeVert 22 13 3 7
Ty Jerome 21 9 6 2
Isaac Okoro 19 9 1 0
Georges Niang 16 7 3 2
Sam Merrill 20 6 2 1
Dean Wade S 24 5 3 2
Luke Travers 4 4 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
19%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Dean Wade CLE
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Moritz Wagner ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
26%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.0 3.4 5.2
2 Darius Garland CLE 19.8 2.5 5.7
3 Evan Mobley CLE 19.2 8.5 2.9
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.8 10.4 1.9
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.3 5.0 4.2
6 Franz Wagner ORL 15.0 4.2 3.1
7 Anthony Black ORL 10.3 3.6 4.1
8 Caris LeVert CLE 10.3 2.4 3.8
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.5 8.7 1.7
10 Ty Jerome CLE 9.1 2.2 3.0
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.0 3.6 1.2
12 Dean Wade CLE 7.8 4.1 1.7
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.1 2.3 1.5
14 Georges Niang CLE 6.1 2.6 0.9
15 Jett Howard ORL 5.7 1.4 0.8
16 Gary Harris ORL 5.6 2.0 0.7
17 Sam Merrill CLE 5.5 1.4 1.4
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.6 2.9 0.6
19 Isaac Okoro CLE 4.6 1.7 1.3
20 Cole Anthony ORL 4.4 1.7 2.1
21 Cory Joseph ORL 3.6 0.9 1.0
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.6 4.8 0.3
23 Tristan da Silva ORL 3.4 1.4 0.4
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.2 2.6 0.7
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.3 0.8 0.3
26 Luke Travers CLE 1.8 2.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.