NBA games

BOS @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
124–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS40312132124
CHA25421923109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (CHA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CHA
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 36 32 11 3
Jaylen Brown S 37 25 6 5
Derrick White S 35 17 2 5
Jrue Holiday S 32 14 5 1
Neemias Queta 24 12 6 1
Payton Pritchard 28 7 2 3
Sam Hauser 18 6 5 2
Jordan Walsh 6 6 0 0
Luke Kornet S 24 5 4 1
JD Davison 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 31 31 2 4
Tre Mann 30 23 4 5
Miles Bridges S 31 14 7 3
Tidjane Salaun 19 9 6 1
Seth Curry S 19 8 2 0
Moussa Diabate 16 7 7 1
Cody Martin 26 7 3 1
Grant Williams 30 6 7 3
Josh Green S 23 3 1 1
Nick Richards S 16 1 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
15%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
4 Nick Richards CHA
11%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Josh Green CHA
8%
9 Seth Curry CHA
8%
10 Tre Mann CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
18%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.8 6.7 5.5
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.5 5.1 7.1
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.7 5.7 3.8
4 Tre Mann CHA 18.9 4.2 3.7
5 Derrick White BOS 17.3 3.8 3.4
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.7 3.5 4.3
7 Miles Bridges CHA 12.7 5.9 1.8
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.7 3.1 2.3
9 Nick Richards CHA 10.2 8.8 1.2
10 Tidjane Salaun CHA 9.4 5.3 1.6
11 Cody Martin CHA 9.1 4.5 1.3
12 Grant Williams CHA 8.1 2.8 2.2
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.0 4.4 1.3
14 Seth Curry CHA 7.3 2.4 1.5
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.7 4.7 1.4
16 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.4 2.5 1.0
17 Josh Green CHA 5.3 2.2 1.1
18 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.1 3.6 1.0
19 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.0 4.5 0.8
20 Neemias Queta BOS 4.6 4.6 0.9
21 JD Davison BOS 4.1 1.3 1.7
22 KJ Simpson CHA 3.9 1.8 1.5
23 Vasilije Micic CHA 3.7 2.0 1.8
24 Jaden Springer BOS 3.1 1.0 1.0
25 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.0 1.3 0.6
26 Taj Gibson CHA 2.3 1.9 0.3
27 Jared Rhoden CHA 2.1 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.