NBA games

PHX @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
125–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX20323934125
LAC37332326119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (LAC) / 9 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 40 5 8
Royce O'Neale 29 21 7 1
Kevin Durant S 39 18 5 4
Ryan Dunn S 34 16 4 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 23 11 3 2
Mason Plumlee 17 8 6 0
Tyus Jones S 33 7 3 11
Grayson Allen 19 2 5 3
Oso Ighodaro 5 2 1 0
Monte Morris 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 36 25 10 13
Norman Powell S 31 23 2 2
Ivica Zubac S 36 22 12 1
Kevin Porter Jr. 17 14 5 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 11 3 2
Terance Mann S 31 8 4 2
Amir Coffey 10 7 1 0
Kris Dunn 24 6 4 2
Nicolas Batum 22 3 5 3
Kai Jones 10 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Terance Mann makes dunk (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
13%
2 Norman Powell LAC
13%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
4 Devin Booker PHX
11%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
9 Terance Mann LAC
8%
10 Bones Hyland LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
36%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 23.6 6.1 3.6
2 James Harden LAC 21.6 5.5 10.5
3 Devin Booker PHX 21.2 3.2 3.9
4 Norman Powell LAC 17.4 3.4 2.1
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.6 9.9 2.5
6 Tyus Jones PHX 10.5 2.8 5.2
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.5 3.5 1.2
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.8 8.3 1.5
9 Jordan Miller LAC 8.9 2.7 1.5
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.3 5.3 2.3
11 Amir Coffey LAC 8.2 2.2 1.0
12 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.2 3.1 2.9
13 Bones Hyland LAC 7.8 3.4 1.5
14 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.2 3.2 1.0
15 Collin Gillespie PHX 6.4 1.4 2.0
16 Kris Dunn LAC 6.4 3.7 1.6
17 Monte Morris PHX 6.2 1.8 2.6
18 Terance Mann LAC 6.1 2.9 1.4
19 Kai Jones LAC 5.9 4.5 1.1
20 Grayson Allen PHX 5.7 1.9 1.4
21 Kobe Brown LAC 5.2 4.8 1.7
22 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.6 4.4 1.2
23 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.2 3.1 1.1
24 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.7 2.9 1.6
25 Bol Bol PHX 3.5 3.3 0.8
26 Damion Lee PHX 3.0 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.