NBA games

SA @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
106–88
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA19283029106
UTAH3023142188

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 9 (SA) games this season
SA away
home UTAH
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 34 25 9 7
Chris Paul S 32 19 7 10
Keldon Johnson 28 13 4 0
Jeremy Sochan S 31 11 5 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 11 10 1 0
Harrison Barnes S 24 8 2 0
Stephon Castle 21 8 4 1
Julian Champagnie S 25 6 6 2
Malaki Branham 17 6 2 1
Blake Wesley 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 25 16 3 3
Keyonte George S 30 15 4 5
John Collins 28 14 11 3
Kyle Filipowski S 20 12 5 1
Patty Mills 16 9 1 1
Walker Kessler S 28 6 11 1
Drew Eubanks 20 6 5 1
Brice Sensabaugh 15 5 3 1
Jordan Clarkson S 21 3 3 1
Cody Williams S 24 2 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Filipowski · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Kyle Filipowski makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
17%
2 Jeremy Sochan SA
15%
3 Walker Kessler UTAH
12%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
9%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
7 Cody Williams UTAH
9%
8 Chris Paul SA
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Collin Sexton UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
43%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jeremy Sochan SA 17.8 8.5 3.1
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 17.0 10.8 3.0
3 Keyonte George UTAH 15.0 3.0 4.8
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 14.2 3.6 3.2
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 13.7 4.0 3.3
6 Keldon Johnson SA 12.6 5.3 1.6
7 John Collins UTAH 11.8 6.1 1.9
8 Julian Champagnie SA 11.4 4.4 1.4
9 Harrison Barnes SA 10.8 3.6 1.6
10 Chris Paul SA 10.8 3.0 6.2
11 Malaki Branham SA 10.6 2.6 1.4
12 Stephon Castle SA 9.4 2.7 3.8
13 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.0 9.9 1.6
14 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.2 3.1 1.5
15 Zach Collins SA 7.3 3.9 1.8
16 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.3 1.8 1.1
17 Cody Williams UTAH 6.8 2.9 1.6
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 6.3 2.4 1.4
19 Sidy Cissoko SA 5.8 2.9 1.2
20 Blake Wesley SA 5.5 2.4 3.3
21 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 5.1 3.5 1.5
22 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.0 3.4 0.7
23 Charles Bassey SA 3.8 3.4 0.5
24 Patty Mills UTAH 3.8 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.