NBA games

HOU @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
108–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU34233120108
DAL21232830102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (DAL) / 8 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DAL
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 36 23 12 4
Dillon Brooks S 41 17 4 2
Alperen Sengun S 35 17 12 4
Tari Eason 19 15 4 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 29 14 6 0
Amen Thompson 18 10 4 1
Cam Whitmore 8 6 1 1
Fred VanVleet S 39 4 5 4
Reed Sheppard 5 2 1 0
Steven Adams 10 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 29 5 2
Kyrie Irving S 43 28 8 7
Klay Thompson S 30 12 1 1
Daniel Gafford S 15 6 3 1
P.J. Washington S 37 6 9 1
Dereck Lively II 15 6 3 2
Naji Marshall 22 4 2 3
Dwight Powell 6 4 2 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 12 4 1 3
Jaden Hardy 11 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
31%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
5 Kyrie Irving DAL
8%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
6%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
4%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
44%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
28%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.7 9.3 6.7
2 Jalen Green HOU 22.4 4.3 2.6
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.2 4.4 4.4
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 18.4 10.5 3.7
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.3 2.6 6.2
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.2 3.9 1.4
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.2 7.3 2.0
8 P.J. Washington DAL 11.0 6.6 1.7
9 Klay Thompson DAL 10.4 3.2 1.7
10 Amen Thompson HOU 9.7 4.8 1.7
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.3 7.3 2.1
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.5 2.0 2.5
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.1 6.0 1.3
14 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.4 2.2 1.3
15 Naji Marshall DAL 6.2 3.3 1.9
16 Tari Eason HOU 6.1 3.6 1.4
17 Quentin Grimes DAL 6.1 3.1 1.4
18 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.7 1.3 1.4
19 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.0 2.1 1.9
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.8 2.1 0.7
21 Steven Adams HOU 4.6 5.3 1.1
22 Brandon Williams DAL 4.5 1.1 1.1
23 Jock Landale HOU 4.2 2.4 0.5
24 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.5 0.9 0.5
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.5 2.0 0.7
26 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.