NBA games

MIL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
99–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2424222999
MEM40302923122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 8 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home MEM
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 34 37 11 4
Brook Lopez S 24 12 3 1
Bobby Portis 25 11 7 0
Gary Trent Jr. S 18 9 2 0
Delon Wright 21 8 1 2
Taurean Prince S 27 5 2 3
Ryan Rollins 5 4 0 1
Damian Lillard S 33 4 2 6
Pat Connaughton 16 3 3 2
Liam Robbins 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 29 26 10 14
Santi Aldama S 33 19 9 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 27 16 3 1
Jaylen Wells S 36 16 7 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 26 13 5 2
Jake LaRavia 33 11 10 3
Zach Edey S 24 10 8 0
Brandon Clarke 12 7 2 2
Jay Huff 17 4 2 1
Yuki Kawamura 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
19%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
3 Zach Edey MEM
12%
4 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
6 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
10%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
8 Liam Robbins MIL
8%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
10 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
28%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.6 11.8 5.8
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.7 5.1 6.3
3 Ja Morant MEM 21.3 5.6 7.1
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.0 5.7 1.8
5 Bobby Portis MIL 13.6 6.4 1.9
6 Santi Aldama MEM 13.4 6.2 3.3
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.3 3.3 2.3
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 10.6 3.2 5.5
9 Brook Lopez MIL 10.5 5.1 1.6
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.0 2.0 1.5
11 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.8 6.0 2.8
12 Zach Edey MEM 9.4 6.4 1.1
13 Jay Huff MEM 8.7 3.9 1.0
14 Taurean Prince MIL 7.4 4.3 1.5
15 John Konchar MEM 6.6 4.8 1.5
16 Brandon Clarke MEM 6.3 3.0 1.2
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.8 2.5 1.6
18 AJ Green MIL 4.2 1.1 1.0
19 Yuki Kawamura MEM 3.8 1.2 2.5
20 Delon Wright MIL 3.7 1.3 1.1
21 Tyler Smith MIL 3.5 2.8 0.5
22 Liam Robbins MIL 3.5 2.3 1.1
23 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.5 1.2 0.8
24 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.3 1.4 0.7
25 Colin Castleton MEM 2.9 2.4 1.4
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 1.9 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.