NBA games

POR @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
106–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR24302824106
LAC26243520105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (LAC) / 8 (POR) games this season
POR away
home LAC
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 36 25 2 6
Deandre Ayton S 34 15 12 1
Scoot Henderson 24 14 3 6
Deni Avdija S 29 13 10 2
Toumani Camara S 40 12 1 1
Jerami Grant S 34 8 3 1
Donovan Clingan 11 7 6 0
Rayan Rupert 8 7 1 0
Kris Murray 19 5 8 2
Jabari Walker 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 35 30 5 2
James Harden S 32 19 5 10
Kevin Porter Jr. 15 10 6 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 33 9 8 2
Amir Coffey 27 9 0 0
Kai Jones 17 7 5 1
Kris Dunn 18 6 2 2
Ivica Zubac S 31 6 12 1
Nicolas Batum 13 5 2 4
Terance Mann S 19 4 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 4-foot layup (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 James Harden LAC
11%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
4 Norman Powell LAC
11%
5 Deni Avdija POR
9%
6 Jerami Grant POR
8%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Deandre Ayton POR
7%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
20%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 21.8 5.3 10.0
2 Anfernee Simons POR 20.0 2.7 4.5
3 Scoot Henderson POR 17.8 4.4 5.2
4 Jerami Grant POR 17.1 4.4 2.5
5 Norman Powell LAC 16.3 2.9 2.0
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.5 9.3 2.5
7 Deandre Ayton POR 12.9 10.3 1.5
8 Toumani Camara POR 11.4 4.8 2.8
9 Deni Avdija POR 10.9 5.1 3.5
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.9 2.7 1.2
11 Jordan Miller LAC 8.8 2.6 1.5
12 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 7.5 2.6 3.0
13 Bones Hyland LAC 7.5 3.4 1.5
14 Amir Coffey LAC 7.3 2.1 1.0
15 Kris Murray POR 6.9 2.7 1.4
16 Rayan Rupert POR 6.8 2.9 1.4
17 Jabari Walker POR 6.3 4.1 0.8
18 Donovan Clingan POR 6.2 8.2 0.8
19 Dalano Banton POR 5.8 2.2 2.3
20 Kris Dunn LAC 5.7 3.5 1.5
21 Terance Mann LAC 5.3 2.5 1.1
22 Kai Jones LAC 5.1 3.9 1.1
23 Kobe Brown LAC 5.1 4.7 1.7
24 Duop Reath POR 3.7 1.8 0.7
25 Nicolas Batum LAC 2.8 2.5 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.