NBA games

SA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
93–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA1925262393
OKC26332323105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (OKC) / 8 (SA) games this season
SA away
home OKC
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 30 18 4 1
Jeremy Sochan S 31 17 9 4
Malaki Branham 20 15 3 0
Chris Paul S 26 14 5 9
Keldon Johnson 29 9 7 2
Victor Wembanyama S 27 6 8 2
Blake Wesley 13 5 1 0
Julian Champagnie S 20 3 3 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 8 3 5 1
Zach Collins 12 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luguentz Dort S 25 20 6 1
Chet Holmgren S 28 19 5 2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 18 4 5
Ajay Mitchell 22 12 4 0
Jalen Williams S 27 12 7 8
Cason Wallace S 29 9 1 2
Isaiah Joe 19 6 1 2
Ousmane Dieng 19 5 5 3
Aaron Wiggins 18 4 3 3
Alex Caruso 22 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes two point shot (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
2 Jeremy Sochan SA
13%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 22.9 6.2 5.3
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 17.6 11.0 2.9
3 Jalen Williams OKC 17.3 4.8 3.5
4 Jeremy Sochan SA 16.9 8.7 2.8
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.4 8.7 2.2
6 Keldon Johnson SA 11.7 5.4 1.3
7 Julian Champagnie SA 10.5 4.9 1.3
8 Harrison Barnes SA 9.5 3.5 1.5
9 Malaki Branham SA 9.5 2.4 1.4
10 Stephon Castle SA 9.5 2.6 3.9
11 Chris Paul SA 8.9 2.9 5.3
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.7 3.7 1.8
13 Ousmane Dieng OKC 8.5 4.8 2.0
14 Zach Collins SA 7.7 3.8 1.8
15 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.5 2.8 1.3
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.4 2.1 1.3
17 Cason Wallace OKC 6.8 4.2 1.6
18 Dillon Jones OKC 6.7 3.7 2.3
19 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.4 1.9 1.8
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.6 1.8 1.0
21 Blake Wesley SA 5.1 2.4 3.4
22 Adam Flagler OKC 4.8 1.1 0.8
23 Sidy Cissoko SA 4.5 2.2 0.9
24 Alex Caruso OKC 4.3 2.9 1.7
25 Charles Bassey SA 3.6 3.2 0.4
26 Alex Ducas OKC 3.5 1.2 0.6
27 Alex Reese OKC 2.8 1.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.