NBA games

BKN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
119–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN34332428119
MEM29332816106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (MEM) / 8 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MEM
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 34 33 2 8
Cam Thomas S 33 19 2 2
Ziaire Williams 24 17 1 3
Cameron Johnson S 35 14 2 4
Jalen Wilson 27 12 7 2
Ben Simmons S 25 8 5 3
Dorian Finney-Smith S 28 7 5 4
Noah Clowney 14 5 2 0
Keon Johnson 16 4 7 1
Jaylen Martin 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 28 30 4 0
Ja Morant S 29 14 8 11
Brandon Clarke 20 13 3 1
Zach Edey S 18 13 2 1
Desmond Bane S 17 10 6 0
Jaylen Wells 23 9 1 4
Scotty Pippen Jr. 20 5 0 4
Jay Huff 10 4 0 0
John Konchar 19 3 3 0
Jake LaRavia 26 3 7 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Edey · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Zach Edey makes dunk (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
15%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
3 Dennis Schroder BKN
11%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
5 Zach Edey MEM
9%
6 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
8 Ben Simmons BKN
7%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
25%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 23.0 4.2 3.2
2 Desmond Bane MEM 21.8 4.9 4.0
3 Ja Morant MEM 21.0 4.8 6.6
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 20.9 2.9 6.8
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 15.9 4.7 2.8
6 Santi Aldama MEM 14.6 6.2 3.7
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 10.9 3.1 5.5
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.7 3.3 1.9
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.3 4.5 1.9
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.1 5.4 1.8
11 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.9 3.2 2.2
12 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.9 5.7 2.7
13 Jay Huff MEM 9.5 3.9 1.1
14 Zach Edey MEM 9.4 6.2 1.0
15 Noah Clowney BKN 8.1 4.2 1.7
16 Marcus Smart MEM 7.4 2.3 3.3
17 Ben Simmons BKN 7.3 5.4 4.4
18 Shake Milton BKN 6.2 1.5 1.7
19 Brandon Clarke MEM 5.6 2.6 1.2
20 John Konchar MEM 5.6 4.3 1.4
21 Keon Johnson BKN 5.0 2.5 1.1
22 Jaylen Martin BKN 4.8 1.9 0.8
23 Tyrese Martin BKN 3.8 1.4 0.8
24 Yuki Kawamura MEM 3.3 0.6 2.8
25 Yongxi Cui BKN 3.2 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.