NBA games

ORL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
99–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL3329251299
CHI18343416102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (CHI) / 7 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CHI
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 31 7 4
Jalen Suggs S 35 17 6 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 14 7 2
Jonathan Isaac 14 8 5 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 8 1 1
Franz Wagner S 23 7 3 4
Moritz Wagner 16 7 6 1
Anthony Black 23 4 3 6
Jett Howard 11 3 2 0
Gary Harris 18 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 37 21 2 3
Josh Giddey S 31 20 11 5
Nikola Vucevic S 36 18 14 5
Ayo Dosunmu 29 12 4 4
Zach LaVine S 36 11 10 3
Patrick Williams S 30 10 7 2
Julian Phillips 14 4 1 0
Adama Sanogo 9 4 1 1
Dalen Terry 11 2 2 0
Torrey Craig 3 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 Coby White CHI
9%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Zach LaVine CHI
8%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
28%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.1 7.8 5.8
2 Zach LaVine CHI 22.9 4.6 3.6
3 Coby White CHI 20.6 4.5 5.2
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.4 9.4 3.4
5 Franz Wagner ORL 16.4 4.4 3.1
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.3 4.7 4.1
7 Josh Giddey CHI 13.6 6.6 5.5
8 Anthony Black ORL 10.8 3.5 4.2
9 Jalen Smith CHI 9.9 6.2 1.3
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 9.7 3.6 2.8
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.2 10.1 1.9
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.5 3.2 1.3
13 Patrick Williams CHI 8.0 4.5 2.0
14 Julian Phillips CHI 7.1 2.4 0.8
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 6.7 2.5 1.7
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 6.6 2.3 1.1
17 Jett Howard ORL 6.2 1.4 1.0
18 Gary Harris ORL 5.8 2.1 0.8
19 Cole Anthony ORL 5.4 2.2 2.4
20 Matas Buzelis CHI 5.2 2.0 1.1
21 Torrey Craig CHI 4.3 1.4 0.5
22 Dalen Terry CHI 4.2 2.1 1.8
23 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.1 1.5 0.6
24 Cory Joseph ORL 4.1 0.9 1.1
25 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.0 2.1 0.4
26 Chris Duarte CHI 3.3 1.3 0.7
27 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.1 3.7 0.5
28 Jevon Carter CHI 3.1 0.9 0.6
29 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.9 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.