NBA games

NY @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
116–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY26263529116
MIA32262227107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (MIA) / 8 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIA
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 44 13 2
Jalen Brunson S 36 22 2 9
Mikal Bridges S 40 17 3 6
OG Anunoby S 37 11 3 0
Josh Hart S 42 10 14 6
Miles McBride 25 10 3 2
Jericho Sims 9 2 3 0
Cameron Payne 12 0 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 35 34 5 7
Terry Rozier S 35 16 4 7
Jimmy Butler III S 37 15 4 4
Bam Adebayo S 33 11 3 4
Nikola Jovic S 27 10 6 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27 8 8 4
Thomas Bryant 15 6 3 0
Duncan Robinson 14 5 2 0
Dru Smith 16 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
13%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
7 Josh Hart NY
9%
8 OG Anunoby NY
8%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
10 Terry Rozier MIA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
14%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.1 3.7 5.2
2 Tyler Herro MIA 18.0 4.0 4.7
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.3 10.9 2.2
4 Miles McBride NY 16.6 2.3 3.3
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 15.3 4.4 3.9
6 Mikal Bridges NY 14.9 3.7 2.4
7 Terry Rozier MIA 13.7 4.6 3.6
8 Bam Adebayo MIA 12.0 6.5 2.2
9 OG Anunoby NY 11.5 4.5 1.7
10 Cameron Payne NY 11.1 2.9 3.5
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.7 5.1 2.8
12 Josh Hart NY 9.1 6.3 2.8
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.2 2.9 2.3
14 Tyler Kolek NY 7.7 1.8 2.4
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.1 3.5 1.1
16 Duncan Robinson MIA 6.2 1.8 1.6
17 Alec Burks MIA 5.8 2.0 1.2
18 Pacome Dadiet NY 5.5 2.0 0.5
19 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.1 2.3 0.9
20 Kel'el Ware MIA 4.8 3.4 0.5
21 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.3 1.1 1.1
22 Jericho Sims NY 3.6 4.7 0.6
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.2 3.2 0.4
24 Dru Smith MIA 3.1 1.4 1.8
25 Kevin Love MIA 2.9 0.6 0.4
26 Jacob Toppin NY 1.8 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.