NBA games

ATL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
120–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL34312728120
WSH33243640133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (WSH) / 8 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home WSH
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 40 35 4 15
Jalen Johnson S 40 21 17 4
David Roddy S 32 17 4 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 35 17 6 2
Clint Capela S 24 12 5 0
Keaton Wallace 15 8 1 2
Garrison Mathews 23 6 1 2
Onyeka Okongwu 24 2 3 2
Larry Nance Jr. 7 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 35 27 9 1
Jordan Poole S 32 24 3 9
Jonas Valanciunas 25 22 8 6
Corey Kispert 37 16 1 2
Bub Carrington S 33 16 6 6
Kyshawn George S 32 11 2 4
Alex Sarr S 23 11 5 2
Marvin Bagley III 6 2 1 0
Jared Butler 10 2 2 2
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Alexandre Sarr makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
14%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
4 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
12%
5 Kobe Bufkin ATL
11%
6 Clint Capela ATL
11%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 24.9 4.5 12.0
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.3 9.2 3.6
3 Jordan Poole WSH 18.0 2.7 4.9
4 Kobe Bufkin ATL 16.8 3.5 4.1
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 14.5 5.1 2.7
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.4 6.4 1.7
7 Corey Kispert WSH 12.9 3.2 2.0
8 Alex Sarr WSH 10.8 6.1 1.8
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.0 3.9 1.4
10 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.0 6.5 2.0
11 Bub Carrington WSH 9.9 3.9 2.3
12 David Roddy ATL 9.8 5.5 2.0
13 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 9.2 4.7 2.4
14 Clint Capela ATL 8.4 7.1 1.3
15 Kyshawn George WSH 7.8 3.6 2.5
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.7 1.5 1.3
17 Marvin Bagley III WSH 6.2 4.6 1.2
18 Jared Butler WSH 6.1 1.3 3.3
19 Vit Krejci ATL 6.0 2.4 2.3
20 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.6 2.0 0.6
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.9 2.7 0.9
22 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.8 1.6 1.4
23 Johnny Davis WSH 3.5 1.1 0.9
24 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.3 2.8 0.4
25 Anthony Gill WSH 3.1 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.