NBA games

DET @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
105–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET22323120105
PHI2619222895

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (PHI) / 9 (DET) games this season
DET away
home PHI
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 37 23 3 3
Cade Cunningham S 37 22 5 7
Tobias Harris S 35 18 14 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 31 16 0 3
Malik Beasley 26 11 3 3
Isaiah Stewart 34 7 11 3
Ronald Holland II 13 6 3 0
Simone Fontecchio 17 2 4 2
Jalen Duren S 11 0 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 40 32 3 7
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 31 13 7 1
Jared McCain 22 12 3 3
Andre Drummond S 28 9 11 0
Guerschon Yabusele 19 8 2 2
Caleb Martin S 33 7 5 1
KJ Martin 23 6 2 0
Kyle Lowry S 20 3 3 2
Eric Gordon 16 3 0 1
Ricky Council IV 7 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tim Hardaway Jr. · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
12%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Tobias Harris DET
10%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
10%
7 Jalen Duren DET
10%
8 Caleb Martin PHI
8%
9 Kyle Lowry PHI
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
30%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 21.6 5.7 7.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 20.1 2.9 4.0
3 Jaden Ivey DET 19.5 4.1 3.8
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.6 3.9 1.8
5 Tobias Harris DET 11.7 5.9 2.3
6 Jalen Duren DET 11.1 8.2 2.5
7 Caleb Martin PHI 10.1 4.8 2.0
8 Andre Drummond PHI 10.0 10.6 1.3
9 Jared McCain PHI 8.5 3.1 1.5
10 Malik Beasley DET 8.3 2.5 1.5
11 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 7.6 4.5 2.0
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 7.2 2.2 1.2
13 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.8 2.7 0.9
14 KJ Martin PHI 6.5 3.3 1.4
15 Ronald Holland II DET 6.3 3.5 1.7
16 Kyle Lowry PHI 6.0 1.9 3.1
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.0 2.3 0.9
18 Eric Gordon PHI 5.7 1.3 0.9
19 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.6 4.2 1.5
20 Cole Swider DET 5.4 2.6 1.0
21 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.8 2.2 0.5
22 Daniss Jenkins DET 3.7 1.6 1.2
23 Alondes Williams DET 3.6 1.6 2.4
24 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.2 0.8 1.2
25 Marcus Sasser DET 3.1 0.8 1.9
26 Paul Reed DET 2.4 2.9 1.2
27 Adem Bona PHI 1.9 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.