NBA games

BOS @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
132–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BOS312629388132
IND3532332411135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (IND) / 9 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home IND
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 43 37 8 4
Jaylen Brown S 43 25 6 5
Derrick White S 37 23 3 1
Payton Pritchard 39 16 4 4
Al Horford S 19 8 4 1
Luke Kornet 16 8 9 2
Jrue Holiday S 25 8 3 4
Sam Hauser 14 5 2 1
Neemias Queta 14 2 9 1
Xavier Tillman 8 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 43 30 11 4
Pascal Siakam S 38 29 11 5
Obi Toppin 33 18 7 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 40 17 6 12
Aaron Nesmith S 30 12 8 3
Isaiah Jackson S 25 10 5 0
T.J. McConnell 22 10 2 3
Ben Sheppard 21 7 6 2
Andrew Nembhard S 5 2 0 1
Jarace Walker 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:55 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
16%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
12%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
6 Derrick White BOS
8%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
10 Al Horford BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
24%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.9 6.5 5.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.4 5.3 3.4
3 Derrick White BOS 16.5 3.9 3.6
4 Pascal Siakam IND 15.8 5.4 4.5
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.5 3.5 4.5
6 Myles Turner IND 15.3 6.0 2.1
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND 13.4 3.9 4.8
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.7 2.9 1.9
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.7 3.1 1.9
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.3 2.4 4.2
11 Al Horford BOS 9.1 3.9 1.7
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 2.3 3.6
13 Obi Toppin IND 8.1 2.5 1.6
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 4.5 1.1
15 Aaron Nesmith IND 6.7 3.0 1.0
16 Jarace Walker IND 6.4 2.7 1.5
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.3 2.0 1.2
18 Jordan Walsh BOS 6.0 3.0 1.1
19 Luke Kornet BOS 5.7 4.6 1.3
20 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.5 4.0 1.0
21 Enrique Freeman IND 5.2 3.9 0.7
22 Neemias Queta BOS 5.1 4.4 1.0
23 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.9 4.0 0.9
24 Quenton Jackson IND 4.4 1.7 1.4
25 Jaden Springer BOS 3.7 1.3 1.0
26 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.6 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.