NBA games

LAL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
110–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL23253131110
CLE42253235134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (CLE) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home CLE
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 29 26 6 3
Anthony Davis S 31 22 13 2
Dalton Knecht 22 18 3 1
D'Angelo Russell S 24 10 3 5
Rui Hachimura S 28 8 5 2
Austin Reaves S 28 7 2 3
Jaxson Hayes 19 6 3 2
Max Christie 27 6 1 1
Gabe Vincent 16 5 0 0
Bronny James 5 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 19 25 5 0
Donovan Mitchell S 30 24 3 7
Jarrett Allen S 31 20 17 1
Caris LeVert 22 16 0 6
Ty Jerome 16 14 2 4
Darius Garland S 22 12 0 10
Dean Wade S 26 8 3 2
Georges Niang 22 5 2 2
Tristan Thompson 5 4 3 1
Isaac Okoro 20 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 LeBron James LAL
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
7 Darius Garland CLE
9%
8 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
31%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
14%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 27.0 11.5 3.4
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.7 3.5 5.1
3 Darius Garland CLE 20.7 2.7 5.5
4 LeBron James LAL 19.6 6.1 6.3
5 Austin Reaves LAL 18.9 6.2 5.3
6 Evan Mobley CLE 18.2 8.3 3.3
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.5 10.0 2.0
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.9 7.2 1.8
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL 12.1 2.8 5.5
10 Dalton Knecht LAL 12.0 3.1 2.1
11 Caris LeVert CLE 10.5 2.8 4.0
12 Ty Jerome CLE 9.0 2.3 3.3
13 Dean Wade CLE 8.2 4.4 1.8
14 Georges Niang CLE 6.5 3.1 0.9
15 Max Christie LAL 6.4 3.1 1.3
16 Sam Merrill CLE 6.1 1.7 1.4
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.0 5.1 1.4
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.5 1.5 1.0
19 Isaac Okoro CLE 4.7 2.2 1.4
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.5 2.4 1.0
21 Cam Reddish LAL 3.4 1.7 0.6
22 Bronny James LAL 3.2 1.6 0.4
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.6 2.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.