NBA games

TOR @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
133–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR16433737133
CHA30343935138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (CHA) / 9 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHA
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 33 31 4 8
Gradey Dick S 36 30 2 1
Jakob Poeltl S 35 20 16 2
Chris Boucher 17 13 4 1
Jonathan Mogbo S 25 11 4 2
Davion Mitchell S 28 11 2 11
Ochai Agbaji 29 10 3 3
Jamal Shead 20 7 2 9
Bruno Fernando 3 0 1 0
Jamison Battle 14 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Mann 28 27 1 4
Cody Martin 25 25 4 2
Nick Richards S 33 24 14 4
LaMelo Ball S 32 19 3 6
Grant Williams 23 17 2 5
Josh Green S 22 9 2 3
Miles Bridges S 24 7 3 2
Seth Curry S 27 7 2 1
Tidjane Salaun 16 3 3 3
Moussa Diabate 9 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Seth Curry · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Seth Curry makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
18%
2 Gradey Dick TOR
14%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
14%
4 Nick Richards CHA
13%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
6 Cody Martin CHA
10%
7 Seth Curry CHA
9%
8 Davion Mitchell TOR
9%
9 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
0%
10 Bruno Fernando TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
19%
Layup
56%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 24.1 4.9 6.9
2 Tre Mann CHA 19.3 4.1 3.8
3 Gradey Dick TOR 15.3 3.6 1.8
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.9 10.7 2.8
5 Miles Bridges CHA 13.7 5.8 1.9
6 Ochai Agbaji TOR 12.1 4.7 1.9
7 Tidjane Salaun CHA 10.1 5.5 1.4
8 Jamal Shead TOR 8.4 1.4 3.8
9 Nick Richards CHA 8.3 7.8 1.0
10 Davion Mitchell TOR 8.0 2.6 5.0
11 Chris Boucher TOR 8.0 3.8 0.8
12 Seth Curry CHA 6.8 2.1 1.4
13 Cody Martin CHA 6.2 4.3 1.0
14 Jamison Battle TOR 6.1 2.3 0.8
15 Grant Williams CHA 6.0 2.4 1.6
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.2 4.3 2.0
17 Bruno Fernando TOR 4.8 4.7 0.9
18 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.4 4.0 0.7
19 KJ Simpson CHA 4.3 1.6 1.6
20 Vasilije Micic CHA 4.2 1.9 2.0
21 Josh Green CHA 3.8 1.5 0.7
22 Taj Gibson CHA 2.5 1.7 0.4
23 Jared Rhoden CHA 2.3 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.