NBA games

NO @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
106124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO31202827106
GS14334037124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (GS) / 6 (NO) games this season
NO away
home GS
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 30 31 8 3
Brandon Ingram S 31 30 4 2
Yves Missi 22 9 7 3
Jose Alvarado 22 6 0 4
Herbert Jones S 20 5 3 0
CJ McCollum S 31 5 6 5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 11 5 1 0
Daniel Theis S 21 5 7 3
Jordan Hawkins 26 4 2 1
Javonte Green 19 3 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield S 29 28 1 1
Lindy Waters III 31 21 8 4
Brandin Podziemski S 34 19 3 5
Jonathan Kuminga 28 17 3 3
Moses Moody S 18 17 2 1
Gary Payton II 8 7 1 0
Kevon Looney 20 4 9 2
Pat Spencer 3 4 0 0
Draymond Green S 29 3 3 7
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 17 3 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Moses Moody makes 28-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
17%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
16%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
4 CJ McCollum NO
11%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS
10%
7 Daniel Theis NO
9%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Jordan Hawkins NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
39%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
25%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 23.2 6.9 4.0
2 Zion Williamson NO 16.8 6.8 3.8
3 Jordan Hawkins NO 16.1 4.2 1.6
4 CJ McCollum NO 15.9 4.0 2.8
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.3 4.9 2.3
6 Buddy Hield GS 13.1 3.6 2.3
7 Moses Moody GS 12.0 3.0 1.7
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.7 3.9 1.4
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.1 4.6 3.6
10 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.9 6.1 2.0
11 Herbert Jones NO 7.3 2.7 1.6
12 Draymond Green GS 6.9 3.8 3.0
13 Yves Missi NO 6.3 4.7 1.1
14 Lindy Waters III GS 6.1 2.6 0.7
15 Daniel Theis NO 5.7 3.2 1.4
16 Javonte Green NO 5.7 3.6 1.0
17 Jose Alvarado NO 5.7 2.0 3.3
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.5 5.4 1.9
19 Gary Payton II GS 5.1 2.0 1.6
20 Kyle Anderson GS 5.0 2.8 2.0
21 Jamal Cain NO 3.7 3.0 0.4
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.5 1.9 0.6
23 Brandon Boston NO 2.0 0.6 0.4
24 Gui Santos GS 1.9 1.1 0.4
25 Pat Spencer GS 1.7 1.1 1.6
26 Reece Beekman GS 1.4 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.