NBA games

SAC @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
113–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC34272923113
UTAH2230143096

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (UTAH) / 8 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home UTAH
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 34 28 11 4
DeMar DeRozan S 34 20 4 8
De'Aaron Fox S 31 19 5 6
Keegan Murray S 32 14 5 1
Kevin Huerter S 27 14 5 0
Malik Monk 26 7 4 3
Keon Ellis 17 5 4 2
Trey Lyles 20 2 7 1
Alex Len 5 2 4 0
Doug McDermott 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson S 26 21 5 3
John Collins 23 18 7 0
Kyle Filipowski 25 12 8 2
Brice Sensabaugh 16 11 3 1
Keyonte George S 30 10 4 11
Cody Williams S 30 9 0 2
Lauri Markkanen S 17 7 3 1
Walker Kessler S 26 4 8 2
Collin Sexton 18 4 2 1
Drew Eubanks 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
8 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
10 Trey Lyles SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
22%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.0 11.2 6.6
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 21.4 5.1 5.9
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 20.1 3.9 4.0
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 18.0 5.9 1.9
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 15.5 3.9 3.5
6 Keyonte George UTAH 15.2 2.9 4.0
7 Keegan Murray SAC 14.0 5.2 1.9
8 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 12.9 3.8 3.1
9 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.7 3.3 1.8
10 Malik Monk SAC 11.4 3.1 2.1
11 John Collins UTAH 10.7 6.0 1.9
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.4 9.7 1.5
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.3 3.2 1.5
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.4 1.9 1.1
15 Cody Williams UTAH 6.9 3.0 1.5
16 Keon Ellis SAC 6.7 2.5 1.8
17 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 5.9 2.0 2.7
18 Doug McDermott SAC 5.5 1.7 0.7
19 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.3 3.7 0.6
20 Trey Lyles SAC 5.0 2.2 0.9
21 Alex Len SAC 4.7 4.2 1.4
22 Patty Mills UTAH 4.2 1.5 0.8
23 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 4.1 3.0 1.4
24 Isaac Jones SAC 3.8 2.6 1.0
25 Colby Jones SAC 3.6 1.6 1.3
26 Skal Labissiere SAC 2.1 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.