NBA games

DAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
120–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26353227120
MIN34252332114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (MIN) / 7 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIN
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 39 35 4 5
Luka Doncic S 40 24 8 8
P.J. Washington S 32 17 8 3
Daniel Gafford S 21 14 4 1
Quentin Grimes 12 9 1 0
Klay Thompson S 30 7 0 1
Dereck Lively II 27 5 9 1
Naji Marshall 16 4 3 3
Spencer Dinwiddie 18 3 2 2
Jaden Hardy 4 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 37 6 3
Julius Randle S 35 20 7 7
Naz Reid 26 14 9 2
Jaden McDaniels S 35 13 4 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 11 2 3
Mike Conley S 22 9 4 6
Rudy Gobert S 31 7 8 1
Donte DiVincenzo 26 3 2 6
Joe Ingles 4 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
26%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
7%
3 Julius Randle MIN
6%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
6%
5 Luka Garza MIN
6%
6 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
6%
7 Rob Dillingham MIN
5%
8 Daniel Gafford DAL
5%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
5%
10 P.J. Washington DAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
12%
Layup
54%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.8 10.3 6.6
2 Julius Randle MIN 25.0 7.4 5.3
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.6 5.0 4.1
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 20.1 4.2 4.0
5 Luka Garza MIN 14.4 5.2 1.2
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.4 3.2 3.5
7 Naz Reid MIN 12.0 5.5 2.1
8 Klay Thompson DAL 11.9 3.8 1.9
9 Josh Minott MIN 11.3 4.6 1.7
10 P.J. Washington DAL 10.7 6.3 1.5
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.6 10.3 1.4
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.9 2.1 2.7
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.6 7.1 2.2
14 Jaden McDaniels MIN 8.3 3.4 1.9
15 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.9 6.4 1.4
16 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.8 2.7 2.0
17 Rob Dillingham MIN 7.8 2.1 4.2
18 Naji Marshall DAL 6.2 3.5 1.8
19 Mike Conley MIN 6.2 2.6 2.5
20 Quentin Grimes DAL 6.0 3.4 1.6
21 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.9 1.4 1.2
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 5.5 2.4 0.8
23 Brandon Williams DAL 5.1 1.4 1.1
24 Daishen Nix MIN 4.9 1.1 1.0
25 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.2 1.8 1.6
26 Joe Ingles MIN 3.3 1.6 2.1
27 Dwight Powell DAL 3.0 1.6 0.7
28 PJ Dozier MIN 2.6 0.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.