NBA games

DEN @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
144–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DEN2736332919144
BKN4032272614139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (BKN) / 8 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home BKN
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 41 29 18 16
Jamal Murray S 37 24 3 3
Aaron Gordon S 33 24 5 2
Russell Westbrook 21 22 1 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 41 16 5 2
Christian Braun S 39 12 3 3
Julian Strawther 22 7 4 0
Peyton Watson 20 7 2 0
Dario Saric 12 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 42 28 0 14
Cam Thomas S 38 26 3 3
Cameron Johnson S 40 20 7 5
Ziaire Williams 22 18 3 4
Dorian Finney-Smith S 37 17 5 4
Nic Claxton 26 16 12 2
Jalen Wilson 21 11 6 2
Shake Milton 17 3 1 2
Noah Clowney S 16 0 3 1
Keon Johnson 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
14%
2 Dennis Schroder BKN
13%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
4 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
5 Christian Braun DEN
11%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
10%
8 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
9%
10 Dario Saric DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
33%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.9 10.2 6.2
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.1 4.1 3.1
3 Dennis Schroder BKN 18.2 2.9 6.3
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.2 6.4 1.8
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 15.1 4.2 2.5
6 Jamal Murray DEN 14.8 3.6 4.0
7 Julian Strawther DEN 14.6 2.9 2.4
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 12.2 5.8 4.0
9 Christian Braun DEN 12.0 5.3 1.8
10 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.9 2.8 2.2
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.6 5.5 1.6
12 Noah Clowney BKN 9.4 4.2 1.8
13 Russell Westbrook DEN 9.1 2.9 4.4
14 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.1 4.4 1.7
15 Nic Claxton BKN 7.4 7.4 1.4
16 Shake Milton BKN 5.9 1.4 1.7
17 Keon Johnson BKN 5.5 2.8 1.4
18 Dario Saric DEN 5.3 3.0 1.2
19 Jaylen Martin BKN 5.2 2.1 0.9
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.5 2.1 0.5
21 Peyton Watson DEN 4.3 3.0 0.8
22 Trey Alexander DEN 4.0 1.9 1.6
23 Tyrese Martin BKN 3.9 1.4 0.8
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.4 3.0 0.8
25 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.3 1.3 1.1
26 Dariq Whitehead BKN 3.1 1.4 0.7
27 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.5 0.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.