NBA games

POR @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
98–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2023282798
SAC25263822111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (SAC) / 7 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SAC
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 34 20 11 1
Scoot Henderson 28 18 4 5
Jabari Walker 19 15 6 0
Anfernee Simons S 32 12 1 3
Deni Avdija S 25 9 4 1
Jerami Grant S 29 7 8 2
Kris Murray 25 7 2 0
Rayan Rupert 11 4 1 1
Donovan Clingan 12 2 6 0
Toumani Camara S 21 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 35 24 6 3
DeMar DeRozan S 34 23 4 3
Kevin Huerter S 33 18 1 4
Domantas Sabonis S 36 16 13 7
Malik Monk 19 12 4 0
Doug McDermott 3 6 0 0
Keegan Murray S 33 6 8 2
Keon Ellis 14 3 3 1
Trey Lyles 15 3 0 0
Isaac Jones 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:42 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes dunk (Kevin Huerter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
17%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
3 Keegan Murray SAC
13%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
5 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
6 Deni Avdija POR
9%
7 Jerami Grant POR
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Deandre Ayton POR
8%
10 Scoot Henderson POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
17%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.1 11.1 6.0
2 Anfernee Simons POR 21.4 2.8 5.0
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 20.8 5.1 6.0
4 Jerami Grant POR 20.0 3.9 2.7
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.2 3.7 3.7
6 Scoot Henderson POR 18.1 4.4 5.3
7 Keegan Murray SAC 14.8 4.8 1.8
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.3 5.6 3.0
9 Deandre Ayton POR 12.3 10.1 1.5
10 Malik Monk SAC 11.8 2.9 2.3
11 Deni Avdija POR 11.7 5.4 3.9
12 Rayan Rupert POR 8.5 3.2 1.6
13 Kris Murray POR 7.3 2.8 1.6
14 Donovan Clingan POR 7.3 8.6 1.0
15 Dalano Banton POR 7.0 2.6 2.8
16 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 6.9 2.2 3.0
17 Keon Ellis SAC 6.2 2.0 1.6
18 Jabari Walker POR 6.0 3.9 0.9
19 Alex Len SAC 4.8 4.4 1.1
20 Duop Reath POR 4.6 1.9 0.8
21 Isaac Jones SAC 2.8 1.7 0.9
22 Colby Jones SAC 2.5 0.9 1.3
23 Skal Labissiere SAC 1.3 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.