NBA games

LAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
105–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL34143522105
PHX25252633109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (PHX) / 9 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHX
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 36 29 15 3
Austin Reaves S 38 23 8 3
Rui Hachimura S 31 20 10 1
D'Angelo Russell S 33 14 1 9
LeBron James S 36 11 5 8
Max Christie 23 5 2 1
Gabe Vincent 19 3 0 0
Dalton Knecht 11 0 1 0
Jaxson Hayes 13 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 33 3 2
Kevin Durant S 38 30 8 4
Bradley Beal S 35 15 3 4
Royce O'Neale 25 12 9 4
Ryan Dunn 15 7 1 0
Tyus Jones S 31 7 6 5
Grayson Allen 12 3 2 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 15 2 4 0
Mason Plumlee 26 0 10 2
Monte Morris 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 12-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
25%
2 LeBron James LAL
9%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
6 Anthony Davis LAL
8%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
8 Devin Booker PHX
7%
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
6%
10 Tyus Jones PHX
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
44%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 26.9 10.7 3.3
2 Kevin Durant PHX 23.7 6.0 4.0
3 LeBron James LAL 20.6 6.1 6.2
4 Devin Booker PHX 20.5 3.2 4.5
5 Austin Reaves LAL 18.2 5.9 5.5
6 Bradley Beal PHX 17.5 3.5 3.8
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.5 6.9 1.7
8 Dalton Knecht LAL 13.3 3.4 2.3
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 13.1 9.7 2.3
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.3 2.8 5.0
11 Tyus Jones PHX 11.1 2.6 5.7
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.5 4.7 2.5
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 8.2 3.4 1.3
14 Monte Morris PHX 7.8 2.2 3.3
15 Max Christie LAL 6.3 3.0 1.2
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.1 5.5 1.5
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.6 1.4 1.0
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.4 4.2 1.4
19 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.3 3.7 1.5
20 Bol Bol PHX 4.3 3.4 0.9
21 Damion Lee PHX 4.3 1.4 1.0
22 Cam Reddish LAL 3.2 1.6 0.6
23 Bronny James LAL 3.2 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.