NBA games

UTAH @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
102–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH19242732102
DAL27223328110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (DAL) / 8 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DAL
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 28 23 4 2
Lauri Markkanen S 35 17 9 2
Keyonte George S 36 17 5 5
John Collins 19 16 6 3
Jordan Clarkson 27 13 5 4
Walker Kessler S 30 12 11 1
Cody Williams 16 2 4 0
Taylor Hendricks S 21 2 3 2
Kyle Filipowski 5 0 1 2
Patty Mills 10 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 36 23 6 9
Klay Thompson S 28 18 4 2
Luka Doncic S 33 15 9 8
Dereck Lively II 26 14 4 2
P.J. Washington S 33 12 11 2
Spencer Dinwiddie 23 11 0 1
Daniel Gafford S 20 9 7 0
Naji Marshall 15 4 6 2
Quentin Grimes 13 4 3 1
Kessler Edwards 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
14%
2 Keyonte George UTAH
14%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
11%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
8 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
8%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
6%
10 John Collins UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
41%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 18.1 5.7 1.9
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 17.3 3.9 2.8
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 14.3 3.9 3.7
4 Keyonte George UTAH 14.2 2.5 4.0
5 Jaden Hardy DAL 12.7 2.4 3.7
6 Klay Thompson DAL 12.2 3.8 1.9
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 11.6 3.9 3.0
8 John Collins UTAH 10.4 6.2 1.8
9 P.J. Washington DAL 10.1 4.9 1.5
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.0 7.6 2.6
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.7 10.0 1.6
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.7 3.2 1.6
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.1 6.3 1.7
14 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 7.9 4.6 1.2
15 Cody Williams UTAH 6.9 2.9 1.6
16 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.7 2.8 1.2
17 Naji Marshall DAL 6.6 3.5 1.9
18 Quentin Grimes DAL 6.5 3.4 1.8
19 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 4.8 3.5 1.4
20 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 4.8 1.0 1.1
21 Patty Mills UTAH 4.6 1.7 0.7
22 Dwight Powell DAL 3.4 2.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.