NBA games

HOU @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
106–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU29332519106
SA15303026101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (SA) / 7 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SA
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 38 36 1 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 29 17 8 1
Alperen Sengun S 26 12 12 5
Fred VanVleet S 41 11 3 9
Dillon Brooks S 37 7 7 0
Amen Thompson 19 7 3 0
Steven Adams 14 6 3 0
Tari Eason 22 6 5 2
Cam Whitmore 12 4 1 0
Reed Sheppard 3 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremy Sochan S 34 22 9 4
Chris Paul S 29 16 1 3
Malaki Branham 17 15 0 1
Victor Wembanyama S 35 14 20 5
Zach Collins 13 11 3 1
Blake Wesley 12 6 2 2
Keldon Johnson 26 6 5 0
Julian Champagnie S 28 5 5 1
Stephon Castle 18 4 1 5
Harrison Barnes S 29 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jeremy Sochan SA
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Jalen Green HOU
11%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Chris Paul SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
16%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 22.0 4.3 2.5
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 18.6 10.0 3.3
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 17.7 9.0 2.6
4 Jeremy Sochan SA 16.8 8.4 2.6
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.8 2.7 6.1
6 Keldon Johnson SA 12.8 5.5 1.6
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.5 3.9 1.6
8 Julian Champagnie SA 11.7 4.8 1.5
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.2 7.6 2.0
10 Amen Thompson HOU 11.2 5.3 2.0
11 Stephon Castle SA 10.4 2.6 3.8
12 Harrison Barnes SA 9.8 3.5 1.6
13 Malaki Branham SA 9.8 2.5 1.3
14 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.6 2.7 1.4
15 Chris Paul SA 8.3 2.8 5.7
16 Zach Collins SA 8.0 4.1 2.2
17 Tari Eason HOU 6.7 3.7 1.4
18 Reed Sheppard HOU 6.4 2.6 2.0
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 6.0 1.8 1.1
20 Jock Landale HOU 5.3 2.9 0.8
21 Blake Wesley SA 5.3 2.5 3.5
22 Sidy Cissoko SA 4.7 2.3 1.0
23 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.1 1.1 0.7
24 Charles Bassey SA 3.8 3.3 0.5
25 Steven Adams HOU 3.6 5.7 1.1
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.0 2.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.