NBA games

CHI @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
126–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI22323933126
MEM32363223123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (MEM) / 8 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MEM
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 35 30 3 4
Nikola Vucevic S 35 22 7 5
Coby White S 32 20 2 5
Jalen Smith 12 16 7 1
Josh Giddey S 28 12 13 8
Ayo Dosunmu 27 10 8 4
Lonzo Ball 18 6 1 6
Patrick Williams S 25 5 6 1
Julian Phillips 14 5 3 1
Dalen Terry 12 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 31 30 7 4
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 24 19 6 1
Jake LaRavia 31 17 9 5
Scotty Pippen Jr. 31 14 4 10
Santi Aldama S 35 11 13 7
Jaylen Wells 17 11 6 2
Jay Huff 18 10 2 1
Zach Edey S 14 6 5 0
Brandon Clarke 13 4 4 0
Marcus Smart S 25 1 4 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 9-foot two point shot (Santi Aldama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
17%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
15%
3 Coby White CHI
12%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
12%
5 Zach Edey MEM
12%
6 Patrick Williams CHI
10%
7 Zach LaVine CHI
10%
8 Marcus Smart MEM
10%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
46%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 22.8 4.8 3.4
2 Coby White CHI 21.3 4.9 5.2
3 Desmond Bane MEM 20.9 5.1 4.1
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.0 10.1 3.1
5 Santi Aldama MEM 15.2 5.7 3.6
6 Josh Giddey CHI 13.4 6.1 5.4
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.0 3.3 2.1
8 Zach Edey MEM 10.9 6.7 1.2
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 10.8 3.2 5.5
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 9.9 3.5 2.8
11 Jalen Smith CHI 9.8 6.8 1.3
12 Jay Huff MEM 9.7 4.1 1.2
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.5 5.5 2.5
14 Patrick Williams CHI 8.3 4.5 2.0
15 Marcus Smart MEM 8.3 2.4 2.9
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 7.7 2.8 1.4
17 Julian Phillips CHI 7.5 2.7 0.8
18 Lonzo Ball CHI 6.5 2.8 2.0
19 John Konchar MEM 6.3 4.6 1.7
20 Matas Buzelis CHI 6.0 2.5 1.2
21 Brandon Clarke MEM 6.0 2.7 1.4
22 Dalen Terry CHI 4.9 2.8 2.0
23 Torrey Craig CHI 4.6 1.5 0.6
24 Yuki Kawamura MEM 4.5 1.1 3.2
25 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 1.5 0.8
26 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.4 3.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.