NBA games

DEN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
127–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DEN2925293113127
TOR3032262611125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (TOR) / 7 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home TOR
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 44 40 10 4
Jamal Murray S 40 17 9 7
Christian Braun S 40 17 4 2
Aaron Gordon S 42 16 11 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 39 13 9 2
Julian Strawther 22 9 2 0
Russell Westbrook 18 9 4 3
Peyton Watson 15 6 2 2
Dario Saric 5 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 35 21 12 9
RJ Barrett S 29 20 5 3
Jakob Poeltl S 40 16 19 2
Davion Mitchell S 35 16 2 6
Gradey Dick S 37 15 1 4
Ochai Agbaji 29 15 7 0
Jamal Shead 18 8 1 5
Jonathan Mogbo 14 6 3 1
Jamison Battle 12 4 1 0
Chris Boucher 14 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
12%
4 Gradey Dick TOR
11%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Christian Braun DEN
10%
7 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
8 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
10 Davion Mitchell TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
22%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 23.1 9.3 6.7
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.0 6.7 5.8
3 Julian Strawther DEN 16.1 2.9 2.9
4 Gradey Dick TOR 16.1 3.7 1.9
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.3 5.9 1.8
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.3 9.9 3.3
7 Jamal Murray DEN 14.0 2.8 3.6
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 12.3 4.7 2.3
9 Aaron Gordon DEN 11.1 4.8 3.3
10 Christian Braun DEN 11.0 5.5 1.8
11 Chris Boucher TOR 9.2 4.1 1.0
12 Russell Westbrook DEN 9.0 2.8 4.7
13 Jamal Shead TOR 9.0 1.5 4.0
14 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.6 2.5 5.2
15 Jamison Battle TOR 6.8 2.2 1.0
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.9 4.7 2.3
17 Bruno Fernando TOR 5.8 5.1 1.1
18 Dario Saric DEN 5.6 3.1 1.2
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.1 2.3 0.7
20 Trey Alexander DEN 4.6 2.0 1.8
21 D.J. Carton TOR 4.4 2.1 1.8
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.0 3.2 1.0
23 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.9 1.5 1.3
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.0 0.9 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.