NBA games

CLE @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
110–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE22232936110
NY18342626104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (NY) / 7 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home NY
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 33 34 3 3
Donovan Mitchell S 33 25 2 5
Evan Mobley S 36 17 8 1
Jarrett Allen S 31 15 15 1
Sam Merrill 22 6 2 2
Georges Niang 15 5 4 1
Caris LeVert 26 5 4 3
Ty Jerome 7 2 0 0
Dean Wade S 28 1 3 4
Isaac Okoro 9 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 21 3 7
Mikal Bridges S 40 19 6 3
Josh Hart S 38 16 13 2
OG Anunoby S 37 15 2 2
Miles McBride 29 14 3 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 13 10 3
Cameron Payne 10 6 3 1
Jericho Sims 4 0 1 0
Ariel Hukporti 12 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 2-foot two point shot (Dean Wade assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
14%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
7 OG Anunoby NY
8%
8 Darius Garland CLE
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
13%
Layup
56%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.1 3.5 5.1
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.0 3.5 4.7
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.2 10.9 2.1
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.0 8.2 3.5
5 Miles McBride NY 17.2 2.2 3.3
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.5 9.0 2.0
7 Darius Garland CLE 16.4 2.4 5.1
8 Mikal Bridges NY 14.1 3.3 2.3
9 Cameron Payne NY 12.8 2.8 4.3
10 OG Anunoby NY 10.9 4.6 1.8
11 Caris LeVert CLE 10.2 2.6 3.8
12 Ty Jerome CLE 9.6 2.6 3.3
13 Tyler Kolek NY 8.6 2.1 2.8
14 Josh Hart NY 8.0 4.7 2.9
15 Dean Wade CLE 7.7 4.5 1.5
16 Georges Niang CLE 6.4 2.7 0.7
17 Pacome Dadiet NY 6.1 2.3 0.8
18 Sam Merrill CLE 5.6 1.6 1.1
19 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.1 2.4 1.5
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.0 2.7 1.0
21 Jericho Sims NY 3.6 5.4 0.7
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.1 2.8 0.7
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.0 3.2 0.5
24 Jacob Toppin NY 2.2 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.